Long-term predictions of the energy development - possibilities and challenges

• Main Authors: Kanevce Gligor, Dedinec Aleksandar, Dedinec Aleksandra, Kanevce Ljubica
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: VINCA Institute of Nuclear Sciences 2016-01-01
• Series: Thermal Science
• Subjects: Energy development planning; MARKAL; sensitivity analysis
• Online Access: http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0354-9836/2016/0354-98361600017K.pdf

In this paper the possibilities, disadvantages and benefits of long-term planning of energy development, are analysed. The factors influencing the development of energy and the factors influencing the accuracy of forecasting of the future development of energy are presented. The uncertainties that make the differences in modelling on a global scale, as well as the uncertainties that make the differences in modelling of the energy development of the Republic of Macedonia are also presented. Sensitivity analysis of the influence of different factors on the development of energy in the Republic of Macedonia was carried out. For those purposes the energy development of the Republic of Macedonia for the period up to 2035 year is calculated by using MARKAL model. The main features of the MARKAL model are also presented.