Spatial and temporal b-value precursors preceding the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake (Mw = 7.9): implications for earthquake prediction
The sudden and unexpected Wenchuan earthquake (Mw = 7.9) occurred on the Longmen Shan Fault without any definite precursors. Therefore, a new computing strategy of b-values was applied in the study area around the epicenter of the Wenchuan mainshock, which is divided into nine circular sub-regions w...
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doaj-3af58ad86bbf473ea2f12237c4e6877c2021-01-04T18:02:35ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132020-01-011111196121110.1080/19475705.2020.17842971784297Spatial and temporal b-value precursors preceding the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake (Mw = 7.9): implications for earthquake predictionJie Chen0Shoubiao Zhu1Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake AdministrationInstitute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake AdministrationThe sudden and unexpected Wenchuan earthquake (Mw = 7.9) occurred on the Longmen Shan Fault without any definite precursors. Therefore, a new computing strategy of b-values was applied in the study area around the epicenter of the Wenchuan mainshock, which is divided into nine circular sub-regions with a radius of 50 km uniformly distributed in space, ignoring geological structures. Then the temporal mapping of b-values is performed at each sub-region. The simulated results show that, at one sub-region where the Wenchuan shock is located, the b-value increased to ∼1.25 in 2002 and was almost unchanged for over five years until 2007. But, the b-value dropped to ∼0.5 in Nov. 2007 and remained the same for about three months. Then, b-value increased again since March 2008, and on May 12, 2008, the Wenchuan mainshock occurred. Indeed, according to previous results, this pattern of b-variations is a typical precursor for major earthquakes, which has not been discovered by many retrospect studies for the Wenchuan earthquake. Therefore, this study, which may capture subtle precursors on b-variations for major earthquakes, is significant for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1784297b-value variationsspatial and temporal mappingearthquake predictionwenchuan earthquakelongmen shan fault zone |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Jie Chen Shoubiao Zhu |
spellingShingle |
Jie Chen Shoubiao Zhu Spatial and temporal b-value precursors preceding the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake (Mw = 7.9): implications for earthquake prediction Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk b-value variations spatial and temporal mapping earthquake prediction wenchuan earthquake longmen shan fault zone |
author_facet |
Jie Chen Shoubiao Zhu |
author_sort |
Jie Chen |
title |
Spatial and temporal b-value precursors preceding the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake (Mw = 7.9): implications for earthquake prediction |
title_short |
Spatial and temporal b-value precursors preceding the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake (Mw = 7.9): implications for earthquake prediction |
title_full |
Spatial and temporal b-value precursors preceding the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake (Mw = 7.9): implications for earthquake prediction |
title_fullStr |
Spatial and temporal b-value precursors preceding the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake (Mw = 7.9): implications for earthquake prediction |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatial and temporal b-value precursors preceding the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake (Mw = 7.9): implications for earthquake prediction |
title_sort |
spatial and temporal b-value precursors preceding the 2008 wenchuan, china, earthquake (mw = 7.9): implications for earthquake prediction |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
series |
Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
issn |
1947-5705 1947-5713 |
publishDate |
2020-01-01 |
description |
The sudden and unexpected Wenchuan earthquake (Mw = 7.9) occurred on the Longmen Shan Fault without any definite precursors. Therefore, a new computing strategy of b-values was applied in the study area around the epicenter of the Wenchuan mainshock, which is divided into nine circular sub-regions with a radius of 50 km uniformly distributed in space, ignoring geological structures. Then the temporal mapping of b-values is performed at each sub-region. The simulated results show that, at one sub-region where the Wenchuan shock is located, the b-value increased to ∼1.25 in 2002 and was almost unchanged for over five years until 2007. But, the b-value dropped to ∼0.5 in Nov. 2007 and remained the same for about three months. Then, b-value increased again since March 2008, and on May 12, 2008, the Wenchuan mainshock occurred. Indeed, according to previous results, this pattern of b-variations is a typical precursor for major earthquakes, which has not been discovered by many retrospect studies for the Wenchuan earthquake. Therefore, this study, which may capture subtle precursors on b-variations for major earthquakes, is significant for earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment. |
topic |
b-value variations spatial and temporal mapping earthquake prediction wenchuan earthquake longmen shan fault zone |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1784297 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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