Health Impact Attributable to Improvement of PM_2.5 Pollution from 2014–2018 and Its Potential Benefits by 2030 in China

• Main Authors: Yu Ma, Deping Li, Liang Zhou
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2021-08-01
• Series: Sustainability
• Subjects: PM_2.5; health impact; spatiotemporal changes; potential benefits; GEMM; China
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/17/9690

With the advancement of urbanization and industrialization, air pollution has become one of the biggest challenges for sustainable development. In recent years, ambient PM_2.5 concentrations in China have declined substantially due to the combined effect of PM_2.5 control and meteorological conditions. To this end, it is critical to assess the health impact attributable to PM_2.5 pollution improvement and to explore the potential benefits which may be obtained through the achievement of future PM_2.5 control targets. Based on PM_2.5 and population data with a 1 km resolution, premature mortality caused by exposure to PM_2.5 in China from 2014 to 2018 was estimated using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). Then, the potential benefits of achieving PM_2.5 control targets were estimated for 2030. The results show that premature mortality caused by PM_2.5 pollution decreased by 22.41%, from 2,361,880 in 2014 to 1,832,470 in 2018. Moreover, the reduction of premature mortality in six major regions of China accounted for 52.82% of the national total reduction. If the PM_2.5 control target can be achieved by 2030, PM_2.5-related premature deaths will further decrease by 403,050, accounting for 21.99% of those in 2018. Among them, 87.02% of cities exhibited decreases in premature deaths. According to the potential benefits in 2030, all cities were divided into three types, of which type III cities should set stricter PM_2.5 control targets and further strengthen the associated monitoring and governance. The results of this study provide a reference for the formulation of air pollution control policies based on regional differences.