| Summary: | Objectives To develop and validate a rule-out prediction model for the risk of hospitalisation among patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the ambulatory setting to derive a simple score to determine outpatient follow-up.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting Swiss university hospital.Participants 1459 individuals with a positive result for SARS-CoV-2 infection between 2 March and 23 April 2020.Methods We applied the rule of 10 events per variable to construct our multivariable model and included a maximum of eight covariates. We assessed the model performance in terms of discrimination and calibration and performed internal validation to estimate the statistical optimism of the final model. The final prediction model included age, fever, dyspnoea, hypertension and chronic respiratory disease. To develop the OUTCoV score, we assigned points for each predictor that were proportional to the coefficients of the regression equation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios were estimated, including positive and negative predictive values in different thresholds.Main outcome measure The primary outcome was COVID-19-related hospitalisation.Results The OUTCoV score ranged from 0 to 7.5 points. The two threshold parameters with optimal rule-out and rule-in characteristics for the risk of hospitalisation were 3 and 5.5, respectively. Outpatients with a score <3 (997/1459; 68.3%) had no follow-up as at low risk of hospitalisation (1.8%; 95% CI 1.1 to 2.8). For a score ≥5.5 (20/1459; 1.4%), the hospitalisation risk was higher (30%; 95% CI 11.9 to 54.3).Conclusions The OUTCoV score allows to rule out two-thirds of outpatients with SARS-CoV-2 infection presenting a low hospitalisation risk and to identify those at high risk that require careful follow-up to assess the need for hospitalisation. The model provides a simple decision-making tool for an effective allocation of resources to maintain quality care for outpatient populations.
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