Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam
The Yangtze River basin is home to more than 400 million people and contributes to nearly half of China's food production. Therefore, planning for climate change impacts on water resource discharges is essential. We used a physically based distributed hydrological model, Shetran, to simulate di...
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doaj-40c8ac0a08564430be464eb06433550d2020-11-24T23:22:37ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382017-04-012141911192710.5194/hess-21-1911-2017Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges DamS. J. Birkinshaw0S. B. Guerreiro1A. Nicholson2Q. Liang3P. Quinn4L. Zhang5B. He6J. Yin7H. J. Fowler8School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UKSchool of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UKOve Arup and Partners, Admiral House, 78 East St., Leeds, UKSchool of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UKSchool of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UKState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Bain, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Bain, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UKThe Yangtze River basin is home to more than 400 million people and contributes to nearly half of China's food production. Therefore, planning for climate change impacts on water resource discharges is essential. We used a physically based distributed hydrological model, Shetran, to simulate discharge in the Yangtze River just below the Three Gorges Dam at Yichang (1 007 200 km<sup>2</sup>), obtaining an excellent match between simulated and measured daily discharge, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.95 for the calibration period (1996–2000) and 0.92 for the validation period (2001–2005). We then used a simple monthly delta change approach for 78 climate model projections (35 different general circulation models – GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to examine the effect of climate change on river discharge for 2041–2070 for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projected changes to the basin's annual precipitation varied between −3.6 and +14.8 % but increases in temperature and consequently evapotranspiration (calculated using the Thornthwaite equation) were projected by all CMIP5 models, resulting in projected changes in the basin's annual discharge from −29.8 to +16.0 %. These large differences were mainly due to the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and west into the Yangtze Basin in some CMIP5 models, e.g. CanESM2, but not in others, e.g. CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. This was despite both models being able to simulate current climate well. Until projections of the strength and location of the monsoon under a future climate improve, large uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of future change in discharge for the Yangtze will remain.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/1911/2017/hess-21-1911-2017.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
S. J. Birkinshaw S. B. Guerreiro A. Nicholson Q. Liang P. Quinn L. Zhang B. He J. Yin H. J. Fowler |
spellingShingle |
S. J. Birkinshaw S. B. Guerreiro A. Nicholson Q. Liang P. Quinn L. Zhang B. He J. Yin H. J. Fowler Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
author_facet |
S. J. Birkinshaw S. B. Guerreiro A. Nicholson Q. Liang P. Quinn L. Zhang B. He J. Yin H. J. Fowler |
author_sort |
S. J. Birkinshaw |
title |
Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam |
title_short |
Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam |
title_full |
Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam |
title_fullStr |
Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam |
title_sort |
climate change impacts on yangtze river discharge at the three gorges dam |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
issn |
1027-5606 1607-7938 |
publishDate |
2017-04-01 |
description |
The Yangtze River basin is home to more than 400 million
people and contributes to nearly half of China's food production. Therefore,
planning for climate change impacts on water resource discharges is
essential. We used a physically based distributed hydrological model,
Shetran, to simulate discharge in the Yangtze River just below the Three
Gorges Dam at Yichang (1 007 200 km<sup>2</sup>), obtaining an excellent match
between simulated and measured daily discharge, with Nash–Sutcliffe
efficiencies of 0.95 for the calibration period (1996–2000) and 0.92 for the
validation period (2001–2005). We then used a simple monthly delta change
approach for 78 climate model projections (35 different general
circulation models – GCMs) from the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to examine the effect of
climate change on river discharge for 2041–2070 for Representative
Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projected changes to the basin's annual
precipitation varied between −3.6 and +14.8 % but increases in
temperature and consequently evapotranspiration (calculated using the
Thornthwaite equation) were projected by all CMIP5 models, resulting in
projected changes in the basin's annual discharge from −29.8 to
+16.0 %. These large differences were mainly due to the predicted
expansion of the summer monsoon north and west into the Yangtze Basin in
some CMIP5 models, e.g. CanESM2, but not in others, e.g. CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. This
was despite both models being able to simulate current climate well. Until
projections of the strength and location of the monsoon under a future
climate improve, large uncertainties in the direction and
magnitude of future change in discharge for the Yangtze will remain. |
url |
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/1911/2017/hess-21-1911-2017.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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