Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Advanced Gastric Cancer after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radical Surgery

• Main Authors: Yonghe Chen, Dan Liu, Jian Xiao, Jun Xiang, Aihong Liu, Shi Chen, Junjie Liu, Xiansheng Hu, Junsheng Peng
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hindawi Limited 2021-01-01
• Series: Gastroenterology Research and Practice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/2923700

Background. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) with subsequent radical surgery has become a popular treatment modality for advanced gastric cancer (AGC) worldwide. However, the survival benefit is still controversial, and prognostic factors remain undetermined. Aim. To identify clinical parameters that are associated with the survival of AGC patients after NAC and radical surgery and to establish a nomogram integrating multiple factors to predict survival. Methods. We reviewed the medical profiles of 215 AGC patients who received NAC and radical resection, and clinical parameters concerning NAC, surgery, pathological findings, and adjuvant chemotherapy were analyzed using a Cox regression model to determine their impact on survival. Based on these factors, a nomogram was developed and validated. Results. The overall 1-year and 3-year survival rates were 85.8% and 55.6%, respectively. Younger age (<60 years old), increased examined lymph nodes (exLNs), successful R0 resection, the achievement of pathological complete response (pCR), and acceptance of adjuvant chemotherapy were positive predictors of survival. The C-index of the established nomogram was 0.785. The area under receiver operating curve (ROC) at 1/3 years of prediction was 0.694/0.736, respectively. The model showed an ideal calibration following internal bootstrap validation. Conclusion. A nomogram predicting survival after NAC and surgery was established. Since this nomogram exhibited satisfactory and stable predictive power, it can be inferred that this is a practical tool for predicting AGC patient survival after NAC and radical surgery.