Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong

Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong

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This paper builds a house prices forecasting model for private residential houses in HongKong, based on general macroeconomic indicators, housing related data and demographicfactors for the period of 1980 to 2001. A reduce form economic model has been derivedfrom a multiple regression analysis where...

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Main Authors: Xin Janet, Ka-Chi Lam
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: UTS ePRESS 2012-11-01
Series:Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building
Online Access:https://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/journals/index.php/AJCEB/article/view/2901
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spelling doaj-4159833177204d6e920aa0d5b951e38c2020-11-24T23:24:00ZengUTS ePRESSAustralasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building1835-63541837-91332012-11-0122577010.5130/ajceb.v2i2.29011871Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong KongXin Janet0Ka-Chi Lam1City University of Hong KongCity University of Hong KongThis paper builds a house prices forecasting model for private residential houses in HongKong, based on general macroeconomic indicators, housing related data and demographicfactors for the period of 1980 to 2001. A reduce form economic model has been derivedfrom a multiple regression analysis where three sets and eight models were derived foranalysis and comparison. It is found that household income, land supply, population andmovements in the Hang Seng Index play an important role in explaining house pricemovements in Hong Kong. In addition, political events, as identified, cannot be ignored.However, the results of the models are unstable. It is suggested that the OLS may nota best method for house prices model in Hong Kong situation. Alternative methods aresuggested.https://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/journals/index.php/AJCEB/article/view/2901
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Xin Janet
Ka-Chi Lam
spellingShingle Xin Janet
Ka-Chi Lam
Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong
Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building
author_facet Xin Janet
Ka-Chi Lam
author_sort Xin Janet
title Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong
title_short Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong
title_full Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong
title_fullStr Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong
title_full_unstemmed Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong
title_sort building a house prices forecasting model in hong kong
publisher UTS ePRESS
series Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building
issn 1835-6354
1837-9133
publishDate 2012-11-01
description This paper builds a house prices forecasting model for private residential houses in HongKong, based on general macroeconomic indicators, housing related data and demographicfactors for the period of 1980 to 2001. A reduce form economic model has been derivedfrom a multiple regression analysis where three sets and eight models were derived foranalysis and comparison. It is found that household income, land supply, population andmovements in the Hang Seng Index play an important role in explaining house pricemovements in Hong Kong. In addition, political events, as identified, cannot be ignored.However, the results of the models are unstable. It is suggested that the OLS may nota best method for house prices model in Hong Kong situation. Alternative methods aresuggested.
url https://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/journals/index.php/AJCEB/article/view/2901
work_keys_str_mv AT xinjanet buildingahousepricesforecastingmodelinhongkong
AT kachilam buildingahousepricesforecastingmodelinhongkong
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