Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses.

Many day-to-day decisions may involve risky outcomes that occur at some delay after a decision has been made. We refer to such scenarios as delayed lotteries. Despite human choice often involves delayed lotteries, past research has primarily focused on decisions with delayed or risky outcomes. Compa...

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Main Authors: Wojciech Białaszek, Przemysław Marcowski, David J Cox
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2020-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233337
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spelling doaj-42354b67983a454db3aceaab95e3890c2021-03-03T21:48:24ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032020-01-01155e023333710.1371/journal.pone.0233337Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses.Wojciech BiałaszekPrzemysław MarcowskiDavid J CoxMany day-to-day decisions may involve risky outcomes that occur at some delay after a decision has been made. We refer to such scenarios as delayed lotteries. Despite human choice often involves delayed lotteries, past research has primarily focused on decisions with delayed or risky outcomes. Comparatively, less research has explored how delay and probability interact to influence decisions. Within research on delayed lotteries, rigorous comparisons of models that describe choice from the discounting framework have not been conducted. We performed two experiments to determine how gain or loss outcomes are devalued when delayed and risky. Experiment 1 used delay and probability ranges similar to past research on delayed lotteries. Experiment 2 used individually calibrated delay and probability ranges. Ten discounting models were fit to the data using a genetic algorithm. Candidate models were derived from past research on discounting delayed or probabilistic outcomes. We found that participants' behavior was best described primarily by a three-parameter multiplicative model. Measures based on information criteria pointed to a solution in which only delay and probability were psychophysically scaled. Absolute measures based on residuals pointed to a solution in which amount, delay, and probability are simultaneously scaled. Our research suggests that separate scaling parameters for different discounting factors may not be necessary with delayed lotteries.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233337
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Wojciech Białaszek
Przemysław Marcowski
David J Cox
spellingShingle Wojciech Białaszek
Przemysław Marcowski
David J Cox
Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses.
PLoS ONE
author_facet Wojciech Białaszek
Przemysław Marcowski
David J Cox
author_sort Wojciech Białaszek
title Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses.
title_short Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses.
title_full Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses.
title_fullStr Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses.
title_full_unstemmed Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses.
title_sort comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
series PLoS ONE
issn 1932-6203
publishDate 2020-01-01
description Many day-to-day decisions may involve risky outcomes that occur at some delay after a decision has been made. We refer to such scenarios as delayed lotteries. Despite human choice often involves delayed lotteries, past research has primarily focused on decisions with delayed or risky outcomes. Comparatively, less research has explored how delay and probability interact to influence decisions. Within research on delayed lotteries, rigorous comparisons of models that describe choice from the discounting framework have not been conducted. We performed two experiments to determine how gain or loss outcomes are devalued when delayed and risky. Experiment 1 used delay and probability ranges similar to past research on delayed lotteries. Experiment 2 used individually calibrated delay and probability ranges. Ten discounting models were fit to the data using a genetic algorithm. Candidate models were derived from past research on discounting delayed or probabilistic outcomes. We found that participants' behavior was best described primarily by a three-parameter multiplicative model. Measures based on information criteria pointed to a solution in which only delay and probability were psychophysically scaled. Absolute measures based on residuals pointed to a solution in which amount, delay, and probability are simultaneously scaled. Our research suggests that separate scaling parameters for different discounting factors may not be necessary with delayed lotteries.
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233337
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AT davidjcox comparisonofmultiplicativeandadditivehyperbolicandhyperboloiddiscountingmodelsindelayedlotteriesinvolvinggainsandlosses
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