40-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in Singapore
Against a rapidly aging population, projections are done to size up the demand for long-term care (LTC) services for long-range policy planning. These projections are typically focused on functional factors such as disability. Recent studies indicate the importance of social factors, for example, so...
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doaj-42b424ebeebe4700aa3c777c767dcb5a2020-11-25T02:54:30ZengMDPI AGInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health1661-78271660-46012020-07-01174950495010.3390/ijerph1714495040-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in SingaporeReuben Ng0Si Qi Lim1Su Ying Saw2Kelvin Bryan Tan3Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore 259772, SingaporeLee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore 259772, SingaporeMinistry of Health, Singapore 169854, SingaporeMinistry of Health, Singapore 169854, SingaporeAgainst a rapidly aging population, projections are done to size up the demand for long-term care (LTC) services for long-range policy planning. These projections are typically focused on functional factors such as disability. Recent studies indicate the importance of social factors, for example, socially isolated seniors living alone are more likely to be institutionalized, resulting in higher demand for LTC services. This is one the first known studies to complete a 40-year projection of LTC demand based on disability and social isolation. The primary micro dataset was the Retirement and Health Survey, Singapore’s first nationally representative longitudinal study of noninstitutionalized older adults aged 45 to 85 with over 15,000 respondents. Disability prevalence across the mild to severe spectrum is projected to increase five-fold over the next 40 years, and the number of socially isolated elders living alone is projected to grow four-fold. Regression models of living arrangements revealed interesting ethnic differences: Malay elders are 2.6 times less likely to live alone than their Chinese counterparts, controlling for marital status, age, and housing type. These projections provide a glimpse of the growing demand for LTC services for a rapidly aging Singapore and underscore the need to shore up community-based resources to enable seniors to age-in-place.https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/14/4950agingsocial gerontologyAsiariskpsychomicspublic policy |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Reuben Ng Si Qi Lim Su Ying Saw Kelvin Bryan Tan |
spellingShingle |
Reuben Ng Si Qi Lim Su Ying Saw Kelvin Bryan Tan 40-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in Singapore International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health aging social gerontology Asia risk psychomics public policy |
author_facet |
Reuben Ng Si Qi Lim Su Ying Saw Kelvin Bryan Tan |
author_sort |
Reuben Ng |
title |
40-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in Singapore |
title_short |
40-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in Singapore |
title_full |
40-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in Singapore |
title_fullStr |
40-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in Singapore |
title_full_unstemmed |
40-Year Projections of Disability and Social Isolation of Older Adults for Long-Range Policy Planning in Singapore |
title_sort |
40-year projections of disability and social isolation of older adults for long-range policy planning in singapore |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health |
issn |
1661-7827 1660-4601 |
publishDate |
2020-07-01 |
description |
Against a rapidly aging population, projections are done to size up the demand for long-term care (LTC) services for long-range policy planning. These projections are typically focused on functional factors such as disability. Recent studies indicate the importance of social factors, for example, socially isolated seniors living alone are more likely to be institutionalized, resulting in higher demand for LTC services. This is one the first known studies to complete a 40-year projection of LTC demand based on disability and social isolation. The primary micro dataset was the Retirement and Health Survey, Singapore’s first nationally representative longitudinal study of noninstitutionalized older adults aged 45 to 85 with over 15,000 respondents. Disability prevalence across the mild to severe spectrum is projected to increase five-fold over the next 40 years, and the number of socially isolated elders living alone is projected to grow four-fold. Regression models of living arrangements revealed interesting ethnic differences: Malay elders are 2.6 times less likely to live alone than their Chinese counterparts, controlling for marital status, age, and housing type. These projections provide a glimpse of the growing demand for LTC services for a rapidly aging Singapore and underscore the need to shore up community-based resources to enable seniors to age-in-place. |
topic |
aging social gerontology Asia risk psychomics public policy |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/14/4950 |
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