Short-term load forecasting using Theta method
The Theta method attracted the attention of researchers and practitioners in recent years due to its simplicity and superior forecasting accuracy. Its performance has been confirmed by many empirical studies as well as forecasting competitions. In this article the Theta method is tested in short-ter...
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EDP Sciences
2019-01-01
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| Series: | E3S Web of Conferences |
| Online Access: | https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/10/e3sconf_pe2019_01004.pdf |
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doaj-433df6851c454f62a6c608ac9540c2422021-03-02T10:23:47ZengEDP SciencesE3S Web of Conferences2267-12422019-01-01840100410.1051/e3sconf/20198401004e3sconf_pe2019_01004Short-term load forecasting using Theta methodDudek Grzegorz0Czestochowa University of Technology, Electrical Engineering FacultyThe Theta method attracted the attention of researchers and practitioners in recent years due to its simplicity and superior forecasting accuracy. Its performance has been confirmed by many empirical studies as well as forecasting competitions. In this article the Theta method is tested in short-term load forecasting problem. The load time series expressing multiple seasonal cycles is decomposed in different ways to simplify the forecasting problem. Four variants of input data definition are considered. The standard Theta method is uses as well as the dynamic optimised Theta model proposed recently. The performances of the Theta models are demonstrated through an empirical application using real power system data and compared with other popular forecasting methods.https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/10/e3sconf_pe2019_01004.pdf |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
English |
| format |
Article |
| sources |
DOAJ |
| author |
Dudek Grzegorz |
| spellingShingle |
Dudek Grzegorz Short-term load forecasting using Theta method E3S Web of Conferences |
| author_facet |
Dudek Grzegorz |
| author_sort |
Dudek Grzegorz |
| title |
Short-term load forecasting using Theta method |
| title_short |
Short-term load forecasting using Theta method |
| title_full |
Short-term load forecasting using Theta method |
| title_fullStr |
Short-term load forecasting using Theta method |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Short-term load forecasting using Theta method |
| title_sort |
short-term load forecasting using theta method |
| publisher |
EDP Sciences |
| series |
E3S Web of Conferences |
| issn |
2267-1242 |
| publishDate |
2019-01-01 |
| description |
The Theta method attracted the attention of researchers and practitioners in recent years due to its simplicity and superior forecasting accuracy. Its performance has been confirmed by many empirical studies as well as forecasting competitions. In this article the Theta method is tested in short-term load forecasting problem. The load time series expressing multiple seasonal cycles is decomposed in different ways to simplify the forecasting problem. Four variants of input data definition are considered. The standard Theta method is uses as well as the dynamic optimised Theta model proposed recently. The performances of the Theta models are demonstrated through an empirical application using real power system data and compared with other popular forecasting methods. |
| url |
https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/10/e3sconf_pe2019_01004.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT dudekgrzegorz shorttermloadforecastingusingthetamethod |
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