Early estimates of epidemic final sizes
Early in a disease outbreak, it is important to be able to estimate the final size of the epidemic in order to assess needs for treatment and to be able to compare the effects of different treatment approaches. However, it is common for epidemics, especially of diseases considered dangerous, to grow...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Journal of Biological Dynamics |
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1469792 |
| Summary: | Early in a disease outbreak, it is important to be able to estimate the final size of the epidemic in order to assess needs for treatment and to be able to compare the effects of different treatment approaches. However, it is common for epidemics, especially of diseases considered dangerous, to grow much more slowly than expected. We suggest that by assuming behavioural changes in the face of an epidemic and heterogeneity of mixing in the population it is possible to obtain reasonable early estimates. |
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| ISSN: | 1751-3758 1751-3766 |