Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification
<em>This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002). This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the iden...
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Faculty of Management National University of Political Studies and Public Administration
2015-06-01
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Series: | Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy |
Online Access: | http://www.managementdynamics.ro/index.php/journal/article/view/138 |
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doaj-43886b7a0dae4931877a341e820a9ed02020-11-24T21:47:51ZengFaculty of Management National University of Political Studies and Public AdministrationManagement Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy2286-26682392-80422015-06-013278Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events IdentificationVasile George MARICA0Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL1Bucharest University of Economic StudiesNational University of Political Studies and Public Administration<em>This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002). This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the identified jumps in CDS premiums are considered as outliers positioned beyond any stochastic movement that can and is already modelled through well-known linear analysis. Though contagion is hard to define, we show that extreme discrete movements in default probabilities inferred from CDS premiums can lead to sound economic conclusions about the risk profile of sovereign nations in international bond markets. We find evidence of investor sentiment clustering for countries with unstable political regimes or that are engaged in armed conflict. Countries that have in their recent history faced currency or financial crises are less vulnerable to external unexpected shocks. First we present a brief history of sovereign defaults with an emphasis on their increased frequency and geographical reach, as financial markets become more and more integrated. We then pass to a literature review of the most important definitions for contagion, and discuss what quantitative methods are available to detect the presence of contagion. The paper continues with the details for the methodology of jump detection through non-linear modelling and its use in the field of contagion identification. In the last sections we present the estimation results for simultaneous jumps between emerging markets CDS and draw conclusions on the difference of behavior in times of extreme movement versus tranquil periods.</em>http://www.managementdynamics.ro/index.php/journal/article/view/138 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Vasile George MARICA Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL |
spellingShingle |
Vasile George MARICA Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy |
author_facet |
Vasile George MARICA Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL |
author_sort |
Vasile George MARICA |
title |
Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification |
title_short |
Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification |
title_full |
Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification |
title_fullStr |
Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification |
title_sort |
sovereign default analysis through extreme events identification |
publisher |
Faculty of Management National University of Political Studies and Public Administration |
series |
Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy |
issn |
2286-2668 2392-8042 |
publishDate |
2015-06-01 |
description |
<em>This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002). This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the identified jumps in CDS premiums are considered as outliers positioned beyond any stochastic movement that can and is already modelled through well-known linear analysis. Though contagion is hard to define, we show that extreme discrete movements in default probabilities inferred from CDS premiums can lead to sound economic conclusions about the risk profile of sovereign nations in international bond markets. We find evidence of investor sentiment clustering for countries with unstable political regimes or that are engaged in armed conflict. Countries that have in their recent history faced currency or financial crises are less vulnerable to external unexpected shocks. First we present a brief history of sovereign defaults with an emphasis on their increased frequency and geographical reach, as financial markets become more and more integrated. We then pass to a literature review of the most important definitions for contagion, and discuss what quantitative methods are available to detect the presence of contagion. The paper continues with the details for the methodology of jump detection through non-linear modelling and its use in the field of contagion identification. In the last sections we present the estimation results for simultaneous jumps between emerging markets CDS and draw conclusions on the difference of behavior in times of extreme movement versus tranquil periods.</em> |
url |
http://www.managementdynamics.ro/index.php/journal/article/view/138 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT vasilegeorgemarica sovereigndefaultanalysisthroughextremeeventsidentification AT lucianclaudiuanghel sovereigndefaultanalysisthroughextremeeventsidentification |
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