Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review
Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have caused substantial public health burdens and global health threats. Understanding the superspreading potentials of these viruses are important for characterizin...
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-01-01
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Series: | Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal |
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Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2001037021003767 |
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doaj-442e6027e2e541acb86b6e1bd553971e |
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record_format |
Article |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Jingxuan Wang Xiao Chen Zihao Guo Shi Zhao Ziyue Huang Zian Zhuang Eliza Lai-yi Wong Benny Chung-Ying Zee Marc Ka Chun Chong Maggie Haitian Wang Eng Kiong Yeoh |
spellingShingle |
Jingxuan Wang Xiao Chen Zihao Guo Shi Zhao Ziyue Huang Zian Zhuang Eliza Lai-yi Wong Benny Chung-Ying Zee Marc Ka Chun Chong Maggie Haitian Wang Eng Kiong Yeoh Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal COVID-19 SARS MERS Superspreading Transmission heterogeneity |
author_facet |
Jingxuan Wang Xiao Chen Zihao Guo Shi Zhao Ziyue Huang Zian Zhuang Eliza Lai-yi Wong Benny Chung-Ying Zee Marc Ka Chun Chong Maggie Haitian Wang Eng Kiong Yeoh |
author_sort |
Jingxuan Wang |
title |
Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review |
title_short |
Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review |
title_full |
Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review |
title_fullStr |
Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review |
title_full_unstemmed |
Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review |
title_sort |
superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of sars, mers, and covid-19: a systematic review |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal |
issn |
2001-0370 |
publishDate |
2021-01-01 |
description |
Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have caused substantial public health burdens and global health threats. Understanding the superspreading potentials of these viruses are important for characterizing transmission patterns and informing strategic decision-making in disease control. This systematic review aimed to summarize the existing evidence on superspreading features and to compare the heterogeneity in transmission within and among various betacoronavirus epidemics of SARS, MERS and COVID-19. Methods: PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase databases were extensively searched for original studies on the transmission heterogeneity of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 published in English between January 1, 2003, and February 10, 2021. After screening the articles, we extracted data pertaining to the estimated dispersion parameter (k) which has been a commonly-used measurement for superspreading potential. Findings: We included a total of 60 estimates of transmission heterogeneity from 26 studies on outbreaks in 22 regions. The majority (90%) of the k estimates were small, with values less than 1, indicating an over-dispersed transmission pattern. The point estimates of k for SARS and MERS ranged from 0.12 to 0.20 and from 0.06 to 2.94, respectively. Among 45 estimates of individual-level transmission heterogeneity for COVID-19 from 17 articles, 91% were derived from Asian regions. The point estimates of k for COVID-19 ranged between 0.1 and 5.0. Conclusions: We detected a substantial over-dispersed transmission pattern in all three coronaviruses, while the k estimates varied by differences in study design and public health capacity. Our findings suggested that even with a reduced R value, the epidemic still has a high resurgence potential due to transmission heterogeneity. |
topic |
COVID-19 SARS MERS Superspreading Transmission heterogeneity |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2001037021003767 |
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doaj-442e6027e2e541acb86b6e1bd553971e2021-09-17T04:35:09ZengElsevierComputational and Structural Biotechnology Journal2001-03702021-01-011950395046Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic reviewJingxuan Wang0Xiao Chen1Zihao Guo2Shi Zhao3Ziyue Huang4Zian Zhuang5Eliza Lai-yi Wong6Benny Chung-Ying Zee7Marc Ka Chun Chong8Maggie Haitian Wang9Eng Kiong Yeoh10JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, ChinaJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, ChinaJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, ChinaMianyang Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Mianyang, ChinaDepartment of Biostatistics, University of California Los Angeles Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA, USAJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; CUHK Institute of Health Equity, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, ChinaJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, ChinaJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China; Corresponding authors at: JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative RegionJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China; Corresponding authors at: JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative RegionJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; CUHK Institute of Health Equity, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, ChinaBackground: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have caused substantial public health burdens and global health threats. Understanding the superspreading potentials of these viruses are important for characterizing transmission patterns and informing strategic decision-making in disease control. This systematic review aimed to summarize the existing evidence on superspreading features and to compare the heterogeneity in transmission within and among various betacoronavirus epidemics of SARS, MERS and COVID-19. Methods: PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase databases were extensively searched for original studies on the transmission heterogeneity of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 published in English between January 1, 2003, and February 10, 2021. After screening the articles, we extracted data pertaining to the estimated dispersion parameter (k) which has been a commonly-used measurement for superspreading potential. Findings: We included a total of 60 estimates of transmission heterogeneity from 26 studies on outbreaks in 22 regions. The majority (90%) of the k estimates were small, with values less than 1, indicating an over-dispersed transmission pattern. The point estimates of k for SARS and MERS ranged from 0.12 to 0.20 and from 0.06 to 2.94, respectively. Among 45 estimates of individual-level transmission heterogeneity for COVID-19 from 17 articles, 91% were derived from Asian regions. The point estimates of k for COVID-19 ranged between 0.1 and 5.0. Conclusions: We detected a substantial over-dispersed transmission pattern in all three coronaviruses, while the k estimates varied by differences in study design and public health capacity. Our findings suggested that even with a reduced R value, the epidemic still has a high resurgence potential due to transmission heterogeneity.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2001037021003767COVID-19SARSMERSSuperspreadingTransmission heterogeneity |