Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches
In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, out...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2016-09-01
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Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/3631/2016/hess-20-3631-2016.pdf |
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record_format |
Article |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
A. F. Van Loon K. Stahl G. Di Baldassarre J. Clark S. Rangecroft N. Wanders T. Gleeson A. I. J. M. Van Dijk L. M. Tallaksen J. Hannaford R. Uijlenhoet A. J. Teuling D. M. Hannah J. Sheffield M. Svoboda B. Verbeiren T. Wagener H. A. J. Van Lanen |
spellingShingle |
A. F. Van Loon K. Stahl G. Di Baldassarre J. Clark S. Rangecroft N. Wanders T. Gleeson A. I. J. M. Van Dijk L. M. Tallaksen J. Hannaford R. Uijlenhoet A. J. Teuling D. M. Hannah J. Sheffield M. Svoboda B. Verbeiren T. Wagener H. A. J. Van Lanen Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
author_facet |
A. F. Van Loon K. Stahl G. Di Baldassarre J. Clark S. Rangecroft N. Wanders T. Gleeson A. I. J. M. Van Dijk L. M. Tallaksen J. Hannaford R. Uijlenhoet A. J. Teuling D. M. Hannah J. Sheffield M. Svoboda B. Verbeiren T. Wagener H. A. J. Van Lanen |
author_sort |
A. F. Van Loon |
title |
Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions,
understanding, and analysis approaches |
title_short |
Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions,
understanding, and analysis approaches |
title_full |
Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions,
understanding, and analysis approaches |
title_fullStr |
Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions,
understanding, and analysis approaches |
title_full_unstemmed |
Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions,
understanding, and analysis approaches |
title_sort |
drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions,
understanding, and analysis approaches |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
issn |
1027-5606 1607-7938 |
publishDate |
2016-09-01 |
description |
In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene,
the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well
as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a
complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface
processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current
inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to
gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene
requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought
definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes
driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought
development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to
clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such
as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and
analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and
from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and
propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks,
and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most
pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its
causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to
societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include
<br><br>
<ul class="itemize"><li class="item nobullet">(i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world?
<br><br>
(ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought
severity?
<br><br>(iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical
characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the
environment?
<br><br>(iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes
coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or
mitigate drought?
<br><br>(v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to
accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what are considered
normal or reference conditions) over time?</p></li></ul>
Answering these questions requires exploration of qualitative and quantitative data as well as mixed
modelling approaches. The challenges related to drought research and
management in the Anthropocene are not unique to drought, but do require
urgent attention. We give recommendations drawn from the fields of flood
research, ecology, water management, and water resources studies. The
framework presented here provides a holistic view on drought in the
Anthropocene, which will help improve management strategies for mitigating
the severity and reducing the impacts of droughts in future.</p> |
url |
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/3631/2016/hess-20-3631-2016.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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doaj-475017b5385947b58ffa85d53d91ef1a2020-11-24T23:43:15ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382016-09-012093631365010.5194/hess-20-3631-2016Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approachesA. F. Van Loon0K. Stahl1G. Di Baldassarre2J. Clark3S. Rangecroft4N. Wanders5T. Gleeson6A. I. J. M. Van Dijk7L. M. Tallaksen8J. Hannaford9R. Uijlenhoet10A. J. Teuling11D. M. Hannah12J. Sheffield13M. Svoboda14B. Verbeiren15T. Wagener16H. A. J. Van Lanen17Water Science Research Group, School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UKHydrology Department, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, GermanyDepartment of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SwedenHuman Geography Research Group, School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UKWater Science Research Group, School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UKCivil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USADepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria, Victoria, CanadaFenner School of Environment & Society, the Australian National University, Canberra, AustraliaDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, NorwayCentre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UKHydrology and Quantitative Water Management group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsHydrology and Quantitative Water Management group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsWater Science Research Group, School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UKCivil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USANational Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USADepartment of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, BelgiumDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKHydrology and Quantitative Water Management group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsIn the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include <br><br> <ul class="itemize"><li class="item nobullet">(i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? <br><br> (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? <br><br>(iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? <br><br>(iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? <br><br>(v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what are considered normal or reference conditions) over time?</p></li></ul> Answering these questions requires exploration of qualitative and quantitative data as well as mixed modelling approaches. The challenges related to drought research and management in the Anthropocene are not unique to drought, but do require urgent attention. We give recommendations drawn from the fields of flood research, ecology, water management, and water resources studies. The framework presented here provides a holistic view on drought in the Anthropocene, which will help improve management strategies for mitigating the severity and reducing the impacts of droughts in future.</p>http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/3631/2016/hess-20-3631-2016.pdf |