Assessing the impact of sea surface temperatures on a simulated medicane using ensemble simulations
<p>The sensitivity of the October 1996 Medicane in the western Mediterranean basin to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated with a regional climate model via ensemble sensitivity simulations. For 11 SST states, ranging from <span class="inline-formula">−4</span>...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2019-04-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/941/2019/nhess-19-941-2019.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>The sensitivity of the October 1996 Medicane in the western
Mediterranean basin to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated with a
regional climate model via ensemble sensitivity simulations. For 11 SST
states, ranging from <span class="inline-formula">−4</span> K below to <span class="inline-formula">+6</span> K above the observed SST field
(in 1 K steps), 24-member ensembles of the medicane are simulated. By using
a modified phase space diagram and a simple compositing method, it is shown
that the SST state has a minor influence on the tracks of the cyclones but a
strong influence on their intensities. Increased SSTs lead to greater
probabilities of tropical transitions, to stronger lower- and upper-level warm
cores and to lower pressure minima. The tropical transition occurs sooner
and lasts longer, which enables a greater number of transitioning cyclones to
survive landfall over Sardinia and re-intensify in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The
results demonstrate that SSTs influence the intensity of fluxes from the sea,
which leads to greater convective activity before the storms reach their
maturity. These results suggest that the processes at steady state for
medicanes are very similar to tropical cyclones.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |