Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to PM2.5 From Residential Solid Fuel Use
Abstract While there have been substantial efforts to quantify the health burden of exposure to PM2.5 from solid fuel use (SFU), the sensitivity of mortality estimates to uncertainties in input parameters has not been quantified. Moreover, previous studies separate mortality from household and ambie...
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2018-01-01
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doaj-4b0867bf25eb441f807b38b026cc2e7f2020-11-25T02:32:56ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)GeoHealth2471-14032018-01-0121253910.1002/2017GH000115Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to PM2.5 From Residential Solid Fuel UseJ. K. Kodros0E. Carter1M. Brauer2J. Volckens3K. R. Bilsback4C. L'Orange5M. Johnson6J. R. Pierce7Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USADepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USASchool of Population and Public Health University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia CanadaDepartment of Mechanical Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USADepartment of Mechanical Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USADepartment of Mechanical Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USABerkeley Air Monitoring Group Berkeley CA USADepartment of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USAAbstract While there have been substantial efforts to quantify the health burden of exposure to PM2.5 from solid fuel use (SFU), the sensitivity of mortality estimates to uncertainties in input parameters has not been quantified. Moreover, previous studies separate mortality from household and ambient air pollution. In this study, we develop a new estimate of mortality attributable to SFU due to the joint exposure from household and ambient PM2.5 pollution and perform a variance‐based sensitivity analysis on mortality attributable to SFU. In the joint exposure calculation, we estimate 2.81 (95% confidence interval: 2.48–3.28) million premature deaths in 2015 attributed to PM2.5 from SFU, which is 580,000 (18%) fewer deaths than would be calculated by summing separate household and ambient mortality calculations. Regarding the sources of uncertainties in these estimates, in China, India, and Latin America, we find that 53–56% of the uncertainty in mortality attributable to SFU is due to uncertainty in the percent of the population using solid fuels and 42–50% from the concentration‐response function. In sub‐Saharan Africa, baseline mortality rate (72%) and the concentration‐response function (33%) dominate the uncertainty space. Conversely, the sum of the variance contributed by ambient and household PM2.5 exposure ranges between 15 and 38% across all regions (the percentages do not sum to 100% as some uncertainty is shared between parameters). Our findings suggest that future studies should focus on more precise quantification of solid fuel use and the concentration‐response relationship to PM2.5, as well as mortality rates in Africa.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GH000115PM2.5cookstovesolid fuel usehealthair qualityexposure |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
J. K. Kodros E. Carter M. Brauer J. Volckens K. R. Bilsback C. L'Orange M. Johnson J. R. Pierce |
spellingShingle |
J. K. Kodros E. Carter M. Brauer J. Volckens K. R. Bilsback C. L'Orange M. Johnson J. R. Pierce Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to PM2.5 From Residential Solid Fuel Use GeoHealth PM2.5 cookstove solid fuel use health air quality exposure |
author_facet |
J. K. Kodros E. Carter M. Brauer J. Volckens K. R. Bilsback C. L'Orange M. Johnson J. R. Pierce |
author_sort |
J. K. Kodros |
title |
Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to PM2.5 From Residential Solid Fuel Use |
title_short |
Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to PM2.5 From Residential Solid Fuel Use |
title_full |
Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to PM2.5 From Residential Solid Fuel Use |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to PM2.5 From Residential Solid Fuel Use |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to PM2.5 From Residential Solid Fuel Use |
title_sort |
quantifying the contribution to uncertainty in mortality attributed to household, ambient, and joint exposure to pm2.5 from residential solid fuel use |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
series |
GeoHealth |
issn |
2471-1403 |
publishDate |
2018-01-01 |
description |
Abstract While there have been substantial efforts to quantify the health burden of exposure to PM2.5 from solid fuel use (SFU), the sensitivity of mortality estimates to uncertainties in input parameters has not been quantified. Moreover, previous studies separate mortality from household and ambient air pollution. In this study, we develop a new estimate of mortality attributable to SFU due to the joint exposure from household and ambient PM2.5 pollution and perform a variance‐based sensitivity analysis on mortality attributable to SFU. In the joint exposure calculation, we estimate 2.81 (95% confidence interval: 2.48–3.28) million premature deaths in 2015 attributed to PM2.5 from SFU, which is 580,000 (18%) fewer deaths than would be calculated by summing separate household and ambient mortality calculations. Regarding the sources of uncertainties in these estimates, in China, India, and Latin America, we find that 53–56% of the uncertainty in mortality attributable to SFU is due to uncertainty in the percent of the population using solid fuels and 42–50% from the concentration‐response function. In sub‐Saharan Africa, baseline mortality rate (72%) and the concentration‐response function (33%) dominate the uncertainty space. Conversely, the sum of the variance contributed by ambient and household PM2.5 exposure ranges between 15 and 38% across all regions (the percentages do not sum to 100% as some uncertainty is shared between parameters). Our findings suggest that future studies should focus on more precise quantification of solid fuel use and the concentration‐response relationship to PM2.5, as well as mortality rates in Africa. |
topic |
PM2.5 cookstove solid fuel use health air quality exposure |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GH000115 |
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