Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1

Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1

<p>An operational multi-model forecasting system for air quality including nine different chemical transport models has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the 37 largest urban areas of China (population higher than 3 million in...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: G. P. Brasseur, Y. Xie, A. K. Petersen, I. Bouarar, J. Flemming, M. Gauss, F. Jiang, R. Kouznetsov, R. Kranenburg, B. Mijling, V.-H. Peuch, M. Pommier, A. Segers, M. Sofiev, R. Timmermans, R. van der A, S. Walters, J. Xu, G. Zhou
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2019-01-01
Series:Geoscientific Model Development
Online Access:https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/33/2019/gmd-12-33-2019.pdf
id doaj-4d70435b665b43c5a7cb72326a70645b
record_format Article
spelling doaj-4d70435b665b43c5a7cb72326a70645b2020-11-25T00:05:44ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032019-01-0112336710.5194/gmd-12-33-2019Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1G. P. Brasseur0G. P. Brasseur1Y. Xie2A. K. Petersen3I. Bouarar4J. Flemming5M. Gauss6F. Jiang7R. Kouznetsov8R. Kranenburg9B. Mijling10V.-H. Peuch11M. Pommier12A. Segers13M. Sofiev14R. Timmermans15R. van der A16S. Walters17J. Xu18G. Zhou19Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAShanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, ChinaMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UKNorwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NorwayNanjing University, Nanjing, ChinaFinnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandTNO, Utrecht, the NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the NetherlandsEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UKNorwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NorwayTNO, Utrecht, the NetherlandsFinnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandTNO, Utrecht, the NetherlandsNanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAShanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, ChinaShanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, China<p>An operational multi-model forecasting system for air quality including nine different chemical transport models has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the 37 largest urban areas of China (population higher than 3 million in 2010). These individual forecasts as well as the mean and median concentrations for the next 3 days are displayed on a publicly accessible website (<a href="http://www.marcopolo-panda.eu" target="_blank">http://www.marcopolo-panda.eu</a>, last access: 7 December 2018). The paper describes the forecasting system and shows some selected illustrative examples of air quality predictions. It presents an intercomparison of the different forecasts performed during a given period of time (1–15 March 2017) and highlights recurrent differences between the model output as well as systematic biases that appear in the median concentration values. Pathways to improve the forecasts by the multi-model system are suggested.</p>https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/33/2019/gmd-12-33-2019.pdf
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author G. P. Brasseur
G. P. Brasseur
Y. Xie
A. K. Petersen
I. Bouarar
J. Flemming
M. Gauss
F. Jiang
R. Kouznetsov
R. Kranenburg
B. Mijling
V.-H. Peuch
M. Pommier
A. Segers
M. Sofiev
R. Timmermans
R. van der A
S. Walters
J. Xu
G. Zhou
spellingShingle G. P. Brasseur
G. P. Brasseur
Y. Xie
A. K. Petersen
I. Bouarar
J. Flemming
M. Gauss
F. Jiang
R. Kouznetsov
R. Kranenburg
B. Mijling
V.-H. Peuch
M. Pommier
A. Segers
M. Sofiev
R. Timmermans
R. van der A
S. Walters
J. Xu
G. Zhou
Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1
Geoscientific Model Development
author_facet G. P. Brasseur
G. P. Brasseur
Y. Xie
A. K. Petersen
I. Bouarar
J. Flemming
M. Gauss
F. Jiang
R. Kouznetsov
R. Kranenburg
B. Mijling
V.-H. Peuch
M. Pommier
A. Segers
M. Sofiev
R. Timmermans
R. van der A
S. Walters
J. Xu
G. Zhou
author_sort G. P. Brasseur
title Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1
title_short Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1
title_full Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1
title_fullStr Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1
title_full_unstemmed Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1
title_sort ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern china – part 1: model description and implementation of the marcopolo–panda prediction system, version 1
publisher Copernicus Publications
series Geoscientific Model Development
issn 1991-959X
1991-9603
publishDate 2019-01-01
description <p>An operational multi-model forecasting system for air quality including nine different chemical transport models has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the 37 largest urban areas of China (population higher than 3 million in 2010). These individual forecasts as well as the mean and median concentrations for the next 3 days are displayed on a publicly accessible website (<a href="http://www.marcopolo-panda.eu" target="_blank">http://www.marcopolo-panda.eu</a>, last access: 7 December 2018). The paper describes the forecasting system and shows some selected illustrative examples of air quality predictions. It presents an intercomparison of the different forecasts performed during a given period of time (1–15 March 2017) and highlights recurrent differences between the model output as well as systematic biases that appear in the median concentration values. Pathways to improve the forecasts by the multi-model system are suggested.</p>
url https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/33/2019/gmd-12-33-2019.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT gpbrasseur ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT gpbrasseur ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT yxie ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT akpetersen ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT ibouarar ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT jflemming ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT mgauss ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT fjiang ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT rkouznetsov ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT rkranenburg ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT bmijling ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT vhpeuch ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT mpommier ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT asegers ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT msofiev ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT rtimmermans ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT rvandera ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT swalters ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT jxu ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
AT gzhou ensembleforecastsofairqualityineasternchinapart1modeldescriptionandimplementationofthemarcopolopandapredictionsystemversion1
_version_ 1725423647732006912

Similar Items