Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic

• Main Authors: Raymond Gani, Helen Hughes, Douglas Fleming, Thomas Griffin, Jolyon Medlock, Steve Leach
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2005-09-01
• Series: Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Subjects: Epidemic Modeling; Antiviral treatment; Pandemic Influenza; Public Health Planning; Real Time Modeling; research
• Online Access: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/11/9/04-1344_article

The recent spread of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza has highlighted the threat posed by pandemic influenza. In the early phases of a pandemic, the only treatment available would be neuraminidase inhibitors, which many countries are considering stockpiling for pandemic use. We estimate the effect on hospitalization rates of using different antiviral stockpile sizes to treat infection. We estimate that stockpiles that cover 20%–25% of the population would be sufficient to treat most of the clinical cases and could lead to 50% to 77% reductions in hospitalizations. Substantial reductions in hospitalization could be achieved with smaller antiviral stockpiles if drugs are reserved for persons at high risk.