Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube
The understanding of spatial distribution patterns of native riparian tree species in Europe lacks accurate species distribution models (SDMs), since riparian forest habitats have a limited spatial extent and are strongly related to the associated watercourses, which needs to be represented in the e...
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doaj-53679861b2f348c49bdf1bbd7ea66ae42021-03-12T00:06:39ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072021-03-011233033010.3390/f12030330Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-DanubeMarkus Sallmannshofer0Debojyoti Chakraborty1Harald Vacik2Gábor Illés3Markus Löw4Andreas Rechenmacher5Katharina Lapin6Sophie Ette7Dejan Stojanović8Andrej Kobler9Silvio Schueler10Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape, Department of Forest Growth and Silviculture, Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, 1131 Vienna, AustriaFederal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape, Department of Forest Growth and Silviculture, Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, 1131 Vienna, AustriaInstitute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter Jordanstr. 82,1190 Vienna, AustriaDepartment of Ecology and Silviculture, NARIK Forest Research Institute, Várkerület 30/A, 9600 Sárvár, HungaryFederal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape, Department of Forest Growth and Silviculture, Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, 1131 Vienna, AustriaFederal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape, Department of Forest Growth and Silviculture, Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, 1131 Vienna, AustriaFederal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape, Department of Forest Growth and Silviculture, Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, 1131 Vienna, AustriaFederal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape, Department of Forest Growth and Silviculture, Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, 1131 Vienna, AustriaInstitute of Lowland Forestry and Environment, University of Novi Sad, Antona Cehova 13, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaSlovenian Forestry Institute, Večna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, SloveniaFederal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape, Department of Forest Growth and Silviculture, Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, 1131 Vienna, AustriaThe understanding of spatial distribution patterns of native riparian tree species in Europe lacks accurate species distribution models (SDMs), since riparian forest habitats have a limited spatial extent and are strongly related to the associated watercourses, which needs to be represented in the environmental predictors. However, SDMs are urgently needed for adapting forest management to climate change, as well as for conservation and restoration of riparian forest ecosystems. For such an operative use, standard large-scale bioclimatic models alone are too coarse and frequently exclude relevant predictors. In this study, we compare a bioclimatic continent-wide model and a regional model based on climate, soil, and river data for central to south-eastern Europe, targeting seven riparian foundation species—<i>Alnus glutinosa</i>,<i> Fraxinus angustifolia</i>,<i> F. excelsior</i>,<i> Populus nigra</i>,<i> Quercus robur</i>,<i> Ulmus laevis,</i> and <i>U. minor</i>. The results emphasize the high importance of precise occurrence data and environmental predictors. Soil predictors were more important than bioclimatic variables, and river variables were partly of the same importance. In both models, five of the seven species were found to decrease in terms of future occurrence probability within the study area, whereas the results for two species were ambiguous. Nevertheless, both models predicted a dangerous loss of occurrence probability for economically and ecologically important tree species, likely leading to significant effects on forest composition and structure, as well as on provided ecosystem services.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/3/330bioclimatic modelecological niche modelforest managementtree species selectionriparian forest habitatclimate change adaptation |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Markus Sallmannshofer Debojyoti Chakraborty Harald Vacik Gábor Illés Markus Löw Andreas Rechenmacher Katharina Lapin Sophie Ette Dejan Stojanović Andrej Kobler Silvio Schueler |
spellingShingle |
Markus Sallmannshofer Debojyoti Chakraborty Harald Vacik Gábor Illés Markus Löw Andreas Rechenmacher Katharina Lapin Sophie Ette Dejan Stojanović Andrej Kobler Silvio Schueler Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube Forests bioclimatic model ecological niche model forest management tree species selection riparian forest habitat climate change adaptation |
author_facet |
Markus Sallmannshofer Debojyoti Chakraborty Harald Vacik Gábor Illés Markus Löw Andreas Rechenmacher Katharina Lapin Sophie Ette Dejan Stojanović Andrej Kobler Silvio Schueler |
author_sort |
Markus Sallmannshofer |
title |
Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube |
title_short |
Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube |
title_full |
Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube |
title_fullStr |
Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube |
title_full_unstemmed |
Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube |
title_sort |
continent-wide tree species distribution models may mislead regional management decisions: a case study in the transboundary biosphere reserve mura-drava-danube |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Forests |
issn |
1999-4907 |
publishDate |
2021-03-01 |
description |
The understanding of spatial distribution patterns of native riparian tree species in Europe lacks accurate species distribution models (SDMs), since riparian forest habitats have a limited spatial extent and are strongly related to the associated watercourses, which needs to be represented in the environmental predictors. However, SDMs are urgently needed for adapting forest management to climate change, as well as for conservation and restoration of riparian forest ecosystems. For such an operative use, standard large-scale bioclimatic models alone are too coarse and frequently exclude relevant predictors. In this study, we compare a bioclimatic continent-wide model and a regional model based on climate, soil, and river data for central to south-eastern Europe, targeting seven riparian foundation species—<i>Alnus glutinosa</i>,<i> Fraxinus angustifolia</i>,<i> F. excelsior</i>,<i> Populus nigra</i>,<i> Quercus robur</i>,<i> Ulmus laevis,</i> and <i>U. minor</i>. The results emphasize the high importance of precise occurrence data and environmental predictors. Soil predictors were more important than bioclimatic variables, and river variables were partly of the same importance. In both models, five of the seven species were found to decrease in terms of future occurrence probability within the study area, whereas the results for two species were ambiguous. Nevertheless, both models predicted a dangerous loss of occurrence probability for economically and ecologically important tree species, likely leading to significant effects on forest composition and structure, as well as on provided ecosystem services. |
topic |
bioclimatic model ecological niche model forest management tree species selection riparian forest habitat climate change adaptation |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/3/330 |
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