| Summary: | This paper quantitatively discusses the role of subjective assessment in deciding popular acceptance for a geological disposal facility (GDF) for high-level radioactive waste. The Hirose survey that we used is an online poll answered by 1,930 Japanese adults over the age of 20; it was conducted twice, both before and after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, and enabled us to conduct a unique analysis. Using this balanced panel data, we focus on neutral respondents who answered Neither–Nor regarding their willingness to accept a GDF in their municipality. The analysis reached the following conclusions. First, neutral respondents were less likely to oppose GDFs, if it led to mitigating the stigma of GDF acceptance directed toward descendants and ancestors and instilling pride in the social benefits of GDF acceptance. Second, regarding the variability of GDF assessment between neutral and non-neutral respondents against external shock, neutrals tended to be more sensitive than non-neutrals. Furthermore, neutrals formed a large bracket wherein the median voter who was a decisive player in collective decision-making was likely to exist. Thus, we should reconsider the importance of neutral respondents for public decision-making about site selection of GDF.
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