Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea
In a climate change context, changes in extreme sea-levels rather than changes in the mean are of particular interest from the coastal protection point of view. In this work, extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea are investigated based on daily tide gauge records for the period 1916–2005 using the an...
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doaj-5672ec1e98d244fda0b09e0128be62fd2020-11-24T21:34:06ZengTaylor & Francis GroupTellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography1600-08702014-04-0166011010.3402/tellusa.v66.2092120921Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic SeaAndreia Ribeiro0Susana M. Barbosa1Manuel G. Scotto2Reik V. Donner3 Instituto Dom Luiz, University of Lisbon, Campo Grande Ed C8, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal Instituto Dom Luiz, University of Lisbon, Campo Grande Ed C8, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal CIDMA and Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193, Aveiro, Portugal Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A31, 14473, Potsdam, GermanyIn a climate change context, changes in extreme sea-levels rather than changes in the mean are of particular interest from the coastal protection point of view. In this work, extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea are investigated based on daily tide gauge records for the period 1916–2005 using the annual block maxima approach. Extreme events are analysed based on the generalised extreme value distribution considering both stationary and time-varying models. The likelihood ratio test is applied to select between stationary and non-stationary models for the maxima and return values are estimated from the final model. As an independent and complementary approach, quantile regression is applied for comparison with the results from the extreme value approach. The rates of change in the uppermost quantiles are in general consistent and most pronounced for the northernmost stations.http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/download/20921/pdf_1Baltic Seasea-levelextremestide gaugesquantile regression |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Andreia Ribeiro Susana M. Barbosa Manuel G. Scotto Reik V. Donner |
spellingShingle |
Andreia Ribeiro Susana M. Barbosa Manuel G. Scotto Reik V. Donner Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography Baltic Sea sea-level extremes tide gauges quantile regression |
author_facet |
Andreia Ribeiro Susana M. Barbosa Manuel G. Scotto Reik V. Donner |
author_sort |
Andreia Ribeiro |
title |
Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea |
title_short |
Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea |
title_full |
Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea |
title_fullStr |
Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea |
title_sort |
changes in extreme sea-levels in the baltic sea |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
series |
Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
issn |
1600-0870 |
publishDate |
2014-04-01 |
description |
In a climate change context, changes in extreme sea-levels rather than changes in the mean are of particular interest from the coastal protection point of view. In this work, extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea are investigated based on daily tide gauge records for the period 1916–2005 using the annual block maxima approach. Extreme events are analysed based on the generalised extreme value distribution considering both stationary and time-varying models. The likelihood ratio test is applied to select between stationary and non-stationary models for the maxima and return values are estimated from the final model. As an independent and complementary approach, quantile regression is applied for comparison with the results from the extreme value approach. The rates of change in the uppermost quantiles are in general consistent and most pronounced for the northernmost stations. |
topic |
Baltic Sea sea-level extremes tide gauges quantile regression |
url |
http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/download/20921/pdf_1 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT andreiaribeiro changesinextremesealevelsinthebalticsea AT susanambarbosa changesinextremesealevelsinthebalticsea AT manuelgscotto changesinextremesealevelsinthebalticsea AT reikvdonner changesinextremesealevelsinthebalticsea |
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