Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China
Abstract Background Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in China and occurs mostly in infants and children. Beijing is a densely populated megacity, in which HFMD has been increasing in the last decade. The aim of this study was to quantify spatio-temporal characteristics o...
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
BMC
2018-04-01
|
Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-018-3071-3 |
id |
doaj-5742f511013345ae8f99ef560b552783 |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-5742f511013345ae8f99ef560b5527832020-11-25T03:41:51ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342018-04-0118111010.1186/s12879-018-3071-3Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, ChinaLin Tian0Fengchao Liang1Meimei Xu2Lei Jia3Xiaochuan Pan4Archie C. A. Clements5Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking UniversityDepartment of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking UniversityInstitute of Medical Information, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeInstitute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and ControlDepartment of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking UniversityResearch School of Population Health, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, The Australian National UniversityAbstract Background Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in China and occurs mostly in infants and children. Beijing is a densely populated megacity, in which HFMD has been increasing in the last decade. The aim of this study was to quantify spatio-temporal characteristics of HFMD and the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence in Beijing, China. Methods Daily counts of HFMD cases from January 2010 to December 2012 were obtained from the Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). Seasonal trend decomposition with Loess smoothing was used to explore seasonal patterns and temporal trends of HFMD. Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson regression models were used to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of HFMD incidence and associations with meteorological factors. Results There were 114,777 HFMD cases reported to Beijing CDC from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012 and the raw incidence was 568.6 per 100,000 people. May to July was the peak period of HFMD incidence each year. Low-incidence townships were clustered in central, northeast and southwest regions of Beijing. Mean temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and sunshine hours were all positively associated with HFMD. The effect of wind velocity was significant with a RR of 3.30 (95%CI: 2.37, 4.60) per meter per second increase, as was sunshine hours with a RR of 1.20 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.40) per 1 hour increase. Conclusions The distribution of HFMD in Beijing was spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and was associated with meteorological factors. Meteorological monitoring could be incorporated into prediction and surveillance of HFMD in Beijing.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-018-3071-3Hand-foot-mouth diseaseSpatio-temporal analysisBayesian approachMeteorological factors |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Lin Tian Fengchao Liang Meimei Xu Lei Jia Xiaochuan Pan Archie C. A. Clements |
spellingShingle |
Lin Tian Fengchao Liang Meimei Xu Lei Jia Xiaochuan Pan Archie C. A. Clements Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China BMC Infectious Diseases Hand-foot-mouth disease Spatio-temporal analysis Bayesian approach Meteorological factors |
author_facet |
Lin Tian Fengchao Liang Meimei Xu Lei Jia Xiaochuan Pan Archie C. A. Clements |
author_sort |
Lin Tian |
title |
Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China |
title_short |
Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China |
title_full |
Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China |
title_fullStr |
Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China |
title_sort |
spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in beijing, china |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
BMC Infectious Diseases |
issn |
1471-2334 |
publishDate |
2018-04-01 |
description |
Abstract Background Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in China and occurs mostly in infants and children. Beijing is a densely populated megacity, in which HFMD has been increasing in the last decade. The aim of this study was to quantify spatio-temporal characteristics of HFMD and the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence in Beijing, China. Methods Daily counts of HFMD cases from January 2010 to December 2012 were obtained from the Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). Seasonal trend decomposition with Loess smoothing was used to explore seasonal patterns and temporal trends of HFMD. Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson regression models were used to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of HFMD incidence and associations with meteorological factors. Results There were 114,777 HFMD cases reported to Beijing CDC from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012 and the raw incidence was 568.6 per 100,000 people. May to July was the peak period of HFMD incidence each year. Low-incidence townships were clustered in central, northeast and southwest regions of Beijing. Mean temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and sunshine hours were all positively associated with HFMD. The effect of wind velocity was significant with a RR of 3.30 (95%CI: 2.37, 4.60) per meter per second increase, as was sunshine hours with a RR of 1.20 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.40) per 1 hour increase. Conclusions The distribution of HFMD in Beijing was spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and was associated with meteorological factors. Meteorological monitoring could be incorporated into prediction and surveillance of HFMD in Beijing. |
topic |
Hand-foot-mouth disease Spatio-temporal analysis Bayesian approach Meteorological factors |
url |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-018-3071-3 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT lintian spatiotemporalanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenmeteorologicalfactorsandhandfootmouthdiseaseinbeijingchina AT fengchaoliang spatiotemporalanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenmeteorologicalfactorsandhandfootmouthdiseaseinbeijingchina AT meimeixu spatiotemporalanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenmeteorologicalfactorsandhandfootmouthdiseaseinbeijingchina AT leijia spatiotemporalanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenmeteorologicalfactorsandhandfootmouthdiseaseinbeijingchina AT xiaochuanpan spatiotemporalanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenmeteorologicalfactorsandhandfootmouthdiseaseinbeijingchina AT archiecaclements spatiotemporalanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenmeteorologicalfactorsandhandfootmouthdiseaseinbeijingchina |
_version_ |
1724527872242089984 |