The Value of Hydrologic Information in Reservoir Outflow Decision-Making
The controlled outflows from a reservoir are highly dependent on the decisions made by the reservoir operators who mainly rely on available hydrologic information, such as past outflows, reservoir water level and forecasted inflows. In this study, Random Forests (RF) algorithm is used to build reser...
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doaj-57b14dc6d847438095b8c73efa6842742020-11-24T21:24:58ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412018-10-011010137210.3390/w10101372w10101372The Value of Hydrologic Information in Reservoir Outflow Decision-MakingKebing Chen0Shenglian Guo1Shaokun He2Tao Xu3Yixuan Zhong4Sirui Sun5State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaChina Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Yichang 443133, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaMiddle Changjiang River Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey, Wuhan 430012, ChinaThe controlled outflows from a reservoir are highly dependent on the decisions made by the reservoir operators who mainly rely on available hydrologic information, such as past outflows, reservoir water level and forecasted inflows. In this study, Random Forests (RF) algorithm is used to build reservoir outflow simulation model to evaluate the value of hydrologic information. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is selected as a case study. As input variables of the model, the classic hydrologic information is divided into past, current and future information. Several different simulation models are established based on the combinations of these three groups of information. The influences and value of hydrologic information on reservoir outflow decision-making are evaluated from two different perspectives, the one is the simulation result of different models and the other is the importance ranking of the input variables in RF algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model is able to reasonably simulate outflow decisions of TGR. It is shown that past outflow is the most important information and the forecasted inflows are more important in the flood season than in the non-flood season for reservoir operation decision-making.http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/10/1372reservoir operationshydrologic informationdata miningrandom forestsdecision-makingthree gorges reservoir |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Kebing Chen Shenglian Guo Shaokun He Tao Xu Yixuan Zhong Sirui Sun |
spellingShingle |
Kebing Chen Shenglian Guo Shaokun He Tao Xu Yixuan Zhong Sirui Sun The Value of Hydrologic Information in Reservoir Outflow Decision-Making Water reservoir operations hydrologic information data mining random forests decision-making three gorges reservoir |
author_facet |
Kebing Chen Shenglian Guo Shaokun He Tao Xu Yixuan Zhong Sirui Sun |
author_sort |
Kebing Chen |
title |
The Value of Hydrologic Information in Reservoir Outflow Decision-Making |
title_short |
The Value of Hydrologic Information in Reservoir Outflow Decision-Making |
title_full |
The Value of Hydrologic Information in Reservoir Outflow Decision-Making |
title_fullStr |
The Value of Hydrologic Information in Reservoir Outflow Decision-Making |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Value of Hydrologic Information in Reservoir Outflow Decision-Making |
title_sort |
value of hydrologic information in reservoir outflow decision-making |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Water |
issn |
2073-4441 |
publishDate |
2018-10-01 |
description |
The controlled outflows from a reservoir are highly dependent on the decisions made by the reservoir operators who mainly rely on available hydrologic information, such as past outflows, reservoir water level and forecasted inflows. In this study, Random Forests (RF) algorithm is used to build reservoir outflow simulation model to evaluate the value of hydrologic information. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is selected as a case study. As input variables of the model, the classic hydrologic information is divided into past, current and future information. Several different simulation models are established based on the combinations of these three groups of information. The influences and value of hydrologic information on reservoir outflow decision-making are evaluated from two different perspectives, the one is the simulation result of different models and the other is the importance ranking of the input variables in RF algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model is able to reasonably simulate outflow decisions of TGR. It is shown that past outflow is the most important information and the forecasted inflows are more important in the flood season than in the non-flood season for reservoir operation decision-making. |
topic |
reservoir operations hydrologic information data mining random forests decision-making three gorges reservoir |
url |
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/10/1372 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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