Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005
Greenhouse-gas emissions have created a planetary energy imbalance that is primarily manifested by increasing ocean heat content (OHC). Updated observational estimates of full-depth OHC change since 1970 are presented that account for recent advancements in reducing observation errors and biases. Th...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2016-07-01
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Series: | Ocean Science |
Online Access: | http://www.ocean-sci.net/12/925/2016/os-12-925-2016.pdf |
Summary: | Greenhouse-gas emissions have created a planetary energy imbalance that is
primarily manifested by increasing ocean heat content (OHC). Updated
observational estimates of full-depth OHC change since 1970 are presented
that account for recent advancements in reducing observation errors and
biases. The full-depth OHC has increased by 0.74 [0.68,
0.80] × 10<sup>22</sup> J yr<sup>−1</sup> (0.46 Wm<sup>−2</sup>) and 1.22
[1.16–1.29] × 10<sup>22</sup> J yr<sup>−1</sup> (0.75 Wm<sup>−2</sup>) for
1970–2005 and 1992–2005, respectively, with a 5 to 95 % confidence
interval of the median. The CMIP5 models show large spread in OHC changes,
suggesting that some models are not state-of-the-art and require further
improvements. However, the ensemble median has excellent agreement with our
observational estimate: 0.68 [0.54–0.82] × 10<sup>22</sup> J yr<sup>−1</sup>
(0.42 Wm<sup>−2</sup>) from 1970 to 2005 and 1.25
[1.10–1.41] × 10<sup>22</sup> J yr<sup>−1</sup> (0.77 Wm<sup>−2</sup>) from 1992
to 2005. These results increase confidence in both the observational and
model estimates to quantify and study changes in Earth's energy imbalance
over the historical period. We suggest that OHC be a fundamental metric for
climate model validation and evaluation, especially for forced changes
(decadal timescales). |
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ISSN: | 1812-0784 1812-0792 |