Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern Greece
Climate change has the potential to influence many aspects of wildfire behavior and risk. During the last decade, Greece has experienced large-scale wildfire phenomena with unprecedented fire behavior and impacts. In this study, thousands of wildfire events were simulated with the Minimum Travel Tim...
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
MDPI AG
2015-06-01
|
Series: | Forests |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/6/6/2214 |
id |
doaj-58c5eb47bb58458287d1d1f110270c5e |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-58c5eb47bb58458287d1d1f110270c5e2020-11-24T23:58:51ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072015-06-01662214224010.3390/f6062214f6062214Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern GreeceKostas Kalabokidis0Palaiologos Palaiologou1Evangelos Gerasopoulos2Christos Giannakopoulos3Effie Kostopoulou4Christos Zerefos5Department of Geography, University of the Aegean, 811 00 Mytilene, GreeceDepartment of Geography, University of the Aegean, 811 00 Mytilene, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 152 36 Athens, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 152 36 Athens, GreeceDepartment of Geography, University of the Aegean, 811 00 Mytilene, GreeceNavarino Environmental Observatory, Costa Navarino 240 01, Messinia, GreeceClimate change has the potential to influence many aspects of wildfire behavior and risk. During the last decade, Greece has experienced large-scale wildfire phenomena with unprecedented fire behavior and impacts. In this study, thousands of wildfire events were simulated with the Minimum Travel Time (MTT) fire growth algorithm (called Randig) and resulted in spatial data that describe conditional burn probabilities, potential fire spread and intensity in Messinia, Greece. Present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate projections were derived from simulations of the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2, under the SRES A1B emission scenario. Data regarding fuel moisture content, wind speed and direction were modified for the different projection time periods to be used as inputs in Randig. Results were used to assess the vulnerability changes for certain values-at-risk of the natural and human-made environment. Differences in wildfire risk were calculated and results revealed that larger wildfires that resist initial control are to be expected in the future, with higher conditional burn probabilities and intensities for extensive parts of the study area. The degree of change in the modeled Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index for the two time periods also revealed an increasing trend in frequencies of higher values for the future.http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/6/6/2214climate changewildfiresriskracmo2fire weather indexminimum travel timebehaveplusrandig |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Kostas Kalabokidis Palaiologos Palaiologou Evangelos Gerasopoulos Christos Giannakopoulos Effie Kostopoulou Christos Zerefos |
spellingShingle |
Kostas Kalabokidis Palaiologos Palaiologou Evangelos Gerasopoulos Christos Giannakopoulos Effie Kostopoulou Christos Zerefos Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern Greece Forests climate change wildfires risk racmo2 fire weather index minimum travel time behaveplus randig |
author_facet |
Kostas Kalabokidis Palaiologos Palaiologou Evangelos Gerasopoulos Christos Giannakopoulos Effie Kostopoulou Christos Zerefos |
author_sort |
Kostas Kalabokidis |
title |
Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern Greece |
title_short |
Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern Greece |
title_full |
Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern Greece |
title_fullStr |
Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern Greece |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern Greece |
title_sort |
effect of climate change projections on forest fire behavior and values-at-risk in southwestern greece |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Forests |
issn |
1999-4907 |
publishDate |
2015-06-01 |
description |
Climate change has the potential to influence many aspects of wildfire behavior and risk. During the last decade, Greece has experienced large-scale wildfire phenomena with unprecedented fire behavior and impacts. In this study, thousands of wildfire events were simulated with the Minimum Travel Time (MTT) fire growth algorithm (called Randig) and resulted in spatial data that describe conditional burn probabilities, potential fire spread and intensity in Messinia, Greece. Present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate projections were derived from simulations of the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2, under the SRES A1B emission scenario. Data regarding fuel moisture content, wind speed and direction were modified for the different projection time periods to be used as inputs in Randig. Results were used to assess the vulnerability changes for certain values-at-risk of the natural and human-made environment. Differences in wildfire risk were calculated and results revealed that larger wildfires that resist initial control are to be expected in the future, with higher conditional burn probabilities and intensities for extensive parts of the study area. The degree of change in the modeled Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index for the two time periods also revealed an increasing trend in frequencies of higher values for the future. |
topic |
climate change wildfires risk racmo2 fire weather index minimum travel time behaveplus randig |
url |
http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/6/6/2214 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT kostaskalabokidis effectofclimatechangeprojectionsonforestfirebehaviorandvaluesatriskinsouthwesterngreece AT palaiologospalaiologou effectofclimatechangeprojectionsonforestfirebehaviorandvaluesatriskinsouthwesterngreece AT evangelosgerasopoulos effectofclimatechangeprojectionsonforestfirebehaviorandvaluesatriskinsouthwesterngreece AT christosgiannakopoulos effectofclimatechangeprojectionsonforestfirebehaviorandvaluesatriskinsouthwesterngreece AT effiekostopoulou effectofclimatechangeprojectionsonforestfirebehaviorandvaluesatriskinsouthwesterngreece AT christoszerefos effectofclimatechangeprojectionsonforestfirebehaviorandvaluesatriskinsouthwesterngreece |
_version_ |
1725449398546071552 |