Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability
Abstract Background With an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and...
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doaj-591d8b13af0045ed9496ad7dba8978632021-02-21T12:46:45ZengBMCHealth Research Policy and Systems1478-45052021-02-011911810.1186/s12961-020-00666-xDemographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainabilityDemetris Lamnisos0Konstantinos Giannakou1Mihajlo (Michael) Jakovljevic2Department of Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, European University CyprusDepartment of Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, European University CyprusInstitute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei UniversityAbstract Background With an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot population to guide future planning of social and health policies and services. Methods The total population by sex and age groups, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), life-expectancies at birth and Potential Support Ratio PSR (persons aged 20–64 years per person 65+ years) are projected probabilistically by the year 2100 using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations’ population data for Greece and Cyprus from the period of 1950 to 2015. Results The TFR is projected to be around 1.5 children per woman in 2050 and around 1.75 in 2100 for both countries, with all values of prediction intervals being around or below the Replacement level fertility. PSR is expected to decrease remarkably and be 2.5 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100 for Cyprus while for Greece it will be around 1.5 for both years 2050 and 2100. Life-expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 87 years for women in 2050 and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100 for both countries. The share of the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase in both countries and be the one third of the population by 2100. Conclusions Greece and Cyprus will acquire the characteristics of an aging population, putting a significance pressure on the social and health systems of both countries. Both countries should reform their social and health policy agenda to confront population aging and its consequence. They should adopt fertility incentives and family policies to increase fertility and migrants’ inclusiveness policies to improve the demographic structure and the economic activity. The national health systems should promote prevention strategies at the primary health sector and promote healthy aging while health research policy should aim to promote research in innovative technologies and digital health to create assistive technology for self-care and greater independence of older people.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-020-00666-xDemographic transitionDemographic forecastingPopulation agingBayesian hierarchical modelsGreeceCyprus |
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DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Demetris Lamnisos Konstantinos Giannakou Mihajlo (Michael) Jakovljevic |
spellingShingle |
Demetris Lamnisos Konstantinos Giannakou Mihajlo (Michael) Jakovljevic Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability Health Research Policy and Systems Demographic transition Demographic forecasting Population aging Bayesian hierarchical models Greece Cyprus |
author_facet |
Demetris Lamnisos Konstantinos Giannakou Mihajlo (Michael) Jakovljevic |
author_sort |
Demetris Lamnisos |
title |
Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_short |
Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_full |
Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_fullStr |
Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_sort |
demographic forecasting of population aging in greece and cyprus: one big challenge for the mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
Health Research Policy and Systems |
issn |
1478-4505 |
publishDate |
2021-02-01 |
description |
Abstract Background With an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot population to guide future planning of social and health policies and services. Methods The total population by sex and age groups, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), life-expectancies at birth and Potential Support Ratio PSR (persons aged 20–64 years per person 65+ years) are projected probabilistically by the year 2100 using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations’ population data for Greece and Cyprus from the period of 1950 to 2015. Results The TFR is projected to be around 1.5 children per woman in 2050 and around 1.75 in 2100 for both countries, with all values of prediction intervals being around or below the Replacement level fertility. PSR is expected to decrease remarkably and be 2.5 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100 for Cyprus while for Greece it will be around 1.5 for both years 2050 and 2100. Life-expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 87 years for women in 2050 and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100 for both countries. The share of the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase in both countries and be the one third of the population by 2100. Conclusions Greece and Cyprus will acquire the characteristics of an aging population, putting a significance pressure on the social and health systems of both countries. Both countries should reform their social and health policy agenda to confront population aging and its consequence. They should adopt fertility incentives and family policies to increase fertility and migrants’ inclusiveness policies to improve the demographic structure and the economic activity. The national health systems should promote prevention strategies at the primary health sector and promote healthy aging while health research policy should aim to promote research in innovative technologies and digital health to create assistive technology for self-care and greater independence of older people. |
topic |
Demographic transition Demographic forecasting Population aging Bayesian hierarchical models Greece Cyprus |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-020-00666-x |
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