A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force

A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force

United States Air Force (USAF) operations are greatly influenced and impacted by environmental conditions. Since 2004, USAF has researched, developed, operationalized, and refined numerical weather prediction ensembles to provide improved environmental information for mission success and safety. Thi...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Evan L. Kuchera, Scott A. Rentschler, Glenn A. Creighton, Steven A. Rugg
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-05-01
Series:Atmosphere
Subjects:
ensemble prediction systems
ensemble post-processing
ensemble products
forecast uncertainty
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/677
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spelling doaj-5bea4aebf73346b399106ff14cdbd1882021-06-01T01:07:13ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-05-011267767710.3390/atmos12060677A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air ForceEvan L. Kuchera0Scott A. Rentschler1Glenn A. Creighton2Steven A. Rugg316th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Drive, Offutt Air Force Base, Bellevue, NE 68113, USA16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Drive, Offutt Air Force Base, Bellevue, NE 68113, USA16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Drive, Offutt Air Force Base, Bellevue, NE 68113, USA16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Drive, Offutt Air Force Base, Bellevue, NE 68113, USAUnited States Air Force (USAF) operations are greatly influenced and impacted by environmental conditions. Since 2004, USAF has researched, developed, operationalized, and refined numerical weather prediction ensembles to provide improved environmental information for mission success and safety. This article reviews how and why USAF capabilities evolved in the context of USAF requirements and limitations. The convergence of time-lagged convection-allowing ensembles with inline diagnostics, algorithms to estimate the sub-grid scale uncertainty of critical forecasting variables, and the distillation of large quantities of ensemble information into decision-relevant products has led to the acceptance of probabilistic environmental forecast information and widespread reliance on ensembles in USAF operations worldwide.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/677ensemble prediction systemsensemble post-processingensemble productsforecast uncertainty
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Evan L. Kuchera
Scott A. Rentschler
Glenn A. Creighton
Steven A. Rugg
spellingShingle Evan L. Kuchera
Scott A. Rentschler
Glenn A. Creighton
Steven A. Rugg
A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force
Atmosphere
ensemble prediction systems
ensemble post-processing
ensemble products
forecast uncertainty
author_facet Evan L. Kuchera
Scott A. Rentschler
Glenn A. Creighton
Steven A. Rugg
author_sort Evan L. Kuchera
title A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force
title_short A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force
title_full A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force
title_fullStr A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force
title_full_unstemmed A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force
title_sort review of operational ensemble forecasting efforts in the united states air force
publisher MDPI AG
series Atmosphere
issn 2073-4433
publishDate 2021-05-01
description United States Air Force (USAF) operations are greatly influenced and impacted by environmental conditions. Since 2004, USAF has researched, developed, operationalized, and refined numerical weather prediction ensembles to provide improved environmental information for mission success and safety. This article reviews how and why USAF capabilities evolved in the context of USAF requirements and limitations. The convergence of time-lagged convection-allowing ensembles with inline diagnostics, algorithms to estimate the sub-grid scale uncertainty of critical forecasting variables, and the distillation of large quantities of ensemble information into decision-relevant products has led to the acceptance of probabilistic environmental forecast information and widespread reliance on ensembles in USAF operations worldwide.
topic ensemble prediction systems
ensemble post-processing
ensemble products
forecast uncertainty
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/677
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