| Summary: | Background: We aimed to identify a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based model for assessment of the risk of individual distant metastasis (DM) before initial treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods: This retrospective cohort analysis included 176 patients with NPC. Using the PyRadiomics platform, we extracted the imaging features of primary tumors in all patients who did not exhibit DM before treatment. Subsequently, we used minimum redundancy-maximum relevance and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithms to select the strongest features and build a logistic model for DM prediction. The independent statistical significance of multiple clinical variables was tested using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Findings: In total, 2780 radiomic features were extracted. A DM MRI-based model (DMMM) comprising seven features was constructed for the classification of patients into high- and low-risk groups in a training cohort and validated in an independent cohort. Overall survival was significantly shorter in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (P < 0·001). A radiomics nomogram based on radiomic features and clinical variables was developed for DM risk assessment in each patient, and it showed a significant predictive ability in the training [area under the curve (AUC), 0·827; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.754–0.900] and validation (AUC, 0.792; 95% CI, 0.633–0.952) cohorts. Interpretation: DMMM can serve as a visual prognostic tool for DM prediction in NPC, and it can improve treatment decisions by aiding in the differentiation of patients with high and low risks of DM. Fund: This research received financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81571664, 81871323, 81801665, 81771924, 81501616, 81671851, and 81527805); the National Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2018B030311024); the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province (2016A020216020); the Scientific Research General Project of Guangzhou Science Technology and Innovation Commission (201707010328); the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2016M600145); and the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0205200, 2017YFC1308700, and 2017YFC1309100). Keywords: Distant metastasis, Nasopharyngeal carcinoma, Risk assessment, Prognostic tool, Magnetic resonance imaging
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