Evaluation of parametric models with estimating the prediction error by apparent loss method in analyzing survival of colorectal patients
Abstract Background: Colorectal cancer is the most common gastrointestinal cancer. Investigating the factors that predict survival time for these patients is important.The purpose of this study was comparison of parametric models by estimating the prediction error and also identifying the effecti...
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Arak Medical University
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doaj-609369e46b8442219870c3388e86f7812020-11-25T00:18:21ZfasArak Medical UniversityMajallah-i dānishgāh-i ̒ulūm-i pizishkī-i Arāk1735-53382008-644X2015-04-0118116Evaluation of parametric models with estimating the prediction error by apparent loss method in analyzing survival of colorectal patientsBaghestani AR0Gohari MR1Orooji A2Pourhosseingholi MA3Department of Biostatistics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranDepartment of Biostatistics, Hospital Management Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranDepartment of Biostatistics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranGastroenterology Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranAbstract Background: Colorectal cancer is the most common gastrointestinal cancer. Investigating the factors that predict survival time for these patients is important.The purpose of this study was comparison of parametric models by estimating the prediction error and also identifying the effective factors on predicted survival time of patients with colorectal cancer. Materials and Methods: This cohort study was conducted with 600 patients who were suffered from colorectal cancer in Taleghani Hospital of Tehran between 2001 to 2005 and they were followed up for at least 5 years. For identifying the effective factors on survival time, of the patients we analyzed the data by some parametric models such as Weibull, Exponential and Log logistic and compared these models with the estimation of prediction error by apparent loss method. Results: Among 600 patients there was 344 men (57.3%) and 256 wemon (47.7%). Of total, 151 patients were died that 62.3% of them were men. Univariate analysis showed that the effect of BMI, sex, staging of tumor, tumor site were significant but in multivariate model staging of tumor and BMI were significant. By the estimation of prediction error, the best model was Log logistic . Conclusion: With respect to the importance of survival time prediction, we found that we can use the prediction error to compare the parametric models. In addition, because of effectiveness of tumor stages and BMI in the patients’ survival time, survival time could be increased by an on-time diagnosis and an appropriate controled diet. http://amuj.arakmu.ac.ir/article-1-2971-en.pdfColorectal CancerPredictionParametric Model |
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format |
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DOAJ |
author |
Baghestani AR Gohari MR Orooji A Pourhosseingholi MA |
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Baghestani AR Gohari MR Orooji A Pourhosseingholi MA Evaluation of parametric models with estimating the prediction error by apparent loss method in analyzing survival of colorectal patients Majallah-i dānishgāh-i ̒ulūm-i pizishkī-i Arāk Colorectal Cancer Prediction Parametric Model |
author_facet |
Baghestani AR Gohari MR Orooji A Pourhosseingholi MA |
author_sort |
Baghestani AR |
title |
Evaluation of parametric models with estimating the prediction error by apparent loss method in analyzing survival of colorectal patients |
title_short |
Evaluation of parametric models with estimating the prediction error by apparent loss method in analyzing survival of colorectal patients |
title_full |
Evaluation of parametric models with estimating the prediction error by apparent loss method in analyzing survival of colorectal patients |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of parametric models with estimating the prediction error by apparent loss method in analyzing survival of colorectal patients |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of parametric models with estimating the prediction error by apparent loss method in analyzing survival of colorectal patients |
title_sort |
evaluation of parametric models with estimating the prediction error by apparent loss method in analyzing survival of colorectal patients |
publisher |
Arak Medical University |
series |
Majallah-i dānishgāh-i ̒ulūm-i pizishkī-i Arāk |
issn |
1735-5338 2008-644X |
publishDate |
2015-04-01 |
description |
Abstract
Background: Colorectal cancer is the most common gastrointestinal cancer. Investigating the factors that predict survival time for these patients is important.The purpose of this study was comparison of parametric models by estimating the prediction error and also identifying the effective factors on predicted survival time of patients with colorectal cancer.
Materials and Methods: This cohort study was conducted with 600 patients who were suffered from colorectal cancer in Taleghani Hospital of Tehran between 2001 to 2005 and they were followed up for at least 5 years. For identifying the effective factors on survival time, of the patients we analyzed the data by some parametric models such as Weibull, Exponential and Log logistic and compared these models with the estimation of prediction error by apparent loss method.
Results: Among 600 patients there was 344 men (57.3%) and 256 wemon (47.7%). Of total, 151 patients were died that 62.3% of them were men. Univariate analysis showed that the effect of BMI, sex, staging of tumor, tumor site were significant but in multivariate model staging of tumor and BMI were significant. By the estimation of prediction error, the best model was Log logistic .
Conclusion: With respect to the importance of survival time prediction, we found that we can use the prediction error to compare the parametric models. In addition, because of effectiveness of tumor stages and BMI in the patients’ survival time, survival time could be increased by an on-time diagnosis and an appropriate controled diet.
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topic |
Colorectal Cancer Prediction Parametric Model |
url |
http://amuj.arakmu.ac.ir/article-1-2971-en.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT baghestaniar evaluationofparametricmodelswithestimatingthepredictionerrorbyapparentlossmethodinanalyzingsurvivalofcolorectalpatients AT goharimr evaluationofparametricmodelswithestimatingthepredictionerrorbyapparentlossmethodinanalyzingsurvivalofcolorectalpatients AT oroojia evaluationofparametricmodelswithestimatingthepredictionerrorbyapparentlossmethodinanalyzingsurvivalofcolorectalpatients AT pourhosseingholima evaluationofparametricmodelswithestimatingthepredictionerrorbyapparentlossmethodinanalyzingsurvivalofcolorectalpatients |
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1725377155860267008 |