An idealized model sensitivity study on Dead Sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convection
<p>The Dead Sea desertification-threatened region is affected by continual lake level decline and occasional but life-endangering flash floods. Climate change has aggravated such issues in the past decades. In this study, the impact on local conditions leading to heavy precipitation from the c...
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doaj-60dda782d69940ba9b41c3ac0265585a2020-11-25T03:52:06ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242020-10-0120120111203110.5194/acp-20-12011-2020An idealized model sensitivity study on Dead Sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convectionS. Khodayar0S. Khodayar1J. Hoerner2Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyMediterranean Centre for Environmental Studies (CEAM), Valencia, SpainMediterranean Centre for Environmental Studies (CEAM), Valencia, Spain<p>The Dead Sea desertification-threatened region is affected by continual lake level decline and occasional but life-endangering flash floods. Climate change has aggravated such issues in the past decades. In this study, the impact on local conditions leading to heavy precipitation from the changing conditions of the Dead Sea is investigated. Idealized sensitivity simulations with the high-resolution COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling and Climate Limited-area Modelling) and several numerical weather prediction (NWP) runs on an event timescale are performed on the Dead Sea area. The simulations are idealized in the sense that the Dead Sea model representation does not accurately represent the real conditions but those given by an external dataset. A reference or Dead Sea simulation covering the 2003–2013 period and a twin sensitivity or bare soil simulation in which the Dead Sea is set to bare soil are compared. NWP simulations focus on heavy precipitation events exhibiting relevant differences between the Dead Sea and the bare soil decadal realization to assess the impact on the underlying convection-related processes.</p> <p>The change in the conditions of the Dead Sea is seen to affect the atmospheric conditions leading to convection in two ways. (a) The local decrease in evaporation reduces moisture availability in the lower boundary layer locally and in the neighbouring regions, directly affecting atmospheric stability. Weaker updraughts characterize the drier and more stable atmosphere of the simulations in which the Dead Sea has been dried out. (b) Thermally driven wind system circulations and resulting divergence/convergence fields are altered, preventing in many occasions the initiation of convection because of the omission of convergence lines. On a decadal scale, the difference between the simulations suggests a weak decrease in evaporation, higher air temperatures and less precipitation (less than 0.5 %).</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/12011/2020/acp-20-12011-2020.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
S. Khodayar S. Khodayar J. Hoerner |
spellingShingle |
S. Khodayar S. Khodayar J. Hoerner An idealized model sensitivity study on Dead Sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convection Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
author_facet |
S. Khodayar S. Khodayar J. Hoerner |
author_sort |
S. Khodayar |
title |
An idealized model sensitivity study on Dead Sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convection |
title_short |
An idealized model sensitivity study on Dead Sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convection |
title_full |
An idealized model sensitivity study on Dead Sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convection |
title_fullStr |
An idealized model sensitivity study on Dead Sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convection |
title_full_unstemmed |
An idealized model sensitivity study on Dead Sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convection |
title_sort |
idealized model sensitivity study on dead sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convection |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
issn |
1680-7316 1680-7324 |
publishDate |
2020-10-01 |
description |
<p>The Dead Sea desertification-threatened region is affected by continual lake
level decline and occasional but life-endangering flash floods. Climate
change has aggravated such issues in the past decades. In this study, the
impact on local conditions leading to heavy precipitation from the changing
conditions of the Dead Sea is investigated. Idealized sensitivity
simulations with the high-resolution COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling and Climate Limited-area Modelling) and several numerical weather prediction (NWP) runs on an
event timescale are performed on the Dead Sea area. The simulations are
idealized in the sense that the Dead Sea model representation does not accurately
represent the real conditions but those given by an external dataset. A
reference or Dead Sea simulation covering the 2003–2013 period and a twin
sensitivity or bare soil simulation in which the Dead Sea is set to bare
soil are compared. NWP simulations focus on heavy precipitation events
exhibiting relevant differences between the Dead Sea and the bare soil
decadal realization to assess the impact on the underlying
convection-related processes.</p>
<p>The change in the conditions of the Dead Sea is seen to affect the
atmospheric conditions leading to convection in two ways. (a) The local
decrease in evaporation reduces moisture availability in the lower boundary
layer locally and in the neighbouring regions, directly affecting atmospheric
stability. Weaker updraughts characterize the drier and more stable atmosphere
of the simulations in which the Dead Sea has been dried out. (b) Thermally
driven wind system circulations and resulting divergence/convergence fields
are altered, preventing in many occasions the initiation of convection because of the omission of convergence lines. On a decadal scale, the difference
between the simulations suggests a weak decrease in evaporation, higher air
temperatures and less precipitation (less than 0.5 %).</p> |
url |
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/12011/2020/acp-20-12011-2020.pdf |
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