Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa

Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa

Prior studies mapping climatologically suitable areas for malaria transmission have used relatively simple thresholds for precipitation. Here the authors show that when models incorporate hydrological processes a more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges in Africa and future shifts in suit...

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Main Authors: M. W. Smith, T. Willis, L. Alfieri, W. H. M. James, M. A. Trigg, D. Yamazaki, A. J. Hardy, B. Bisselink, A. De Roo, M. G. Macklin, C. J. Thomas
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Publishing Group 2020-08-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18239-5
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spelling doaj-61959e5d5b0547dc866e300ae4a240612021-08-29T11:39:46ZengNature Publishing GroupNature Communications2041-17232020-08-011111910.1038/s41467-020-18239-5Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in AfricaM. W. Smith0T. Willis1L. Alfieri2W. H. M. James3M. A. Trigg4D. Yamazaki5A. J. Hardy6B. Bisselink7A. De Roo8M. G. Macklin9C. J. Thomas10School of Geography and Water@Leeds, University of LeedsSchool of Geography and Water@Leeds, University of LeedsEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreSchool of Geography and Water@Leeds, University of LeedsSchool of Civil Engineering and Water@Leeds, University of LeedsInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of TokyoDepartment of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth UniversityEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreSchool of Geography and Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health, University of LincolnSchool of Geography and Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health, University of LincolnPrior studies mapping climatologically suitable areas for malaria transmission have used relatively simple thresholds for precipitation. Here the authors show that when models incorporate hydrological processes a more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges in Africa and future shifts in suitability are more pronounced.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18239-5
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author M. W. Smith
T. Willis
L. Alfieri
W. H. M. James
M. A. Trigg
D. Yamazaki
A. J. Hardy
B. Bisselink
A. De Roo
M. G. Macklin
C. J. Thomas
spellingShingle M. W. Smith
T. Willis
L. Alfieri
W. H. M. James
M. A. Trigg
D. Yamazaki
A. J. Hardy
B. Bisselink
A. De Roo
M. G. Macklin
C. J. Thomas
Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa
Nature Communications
author_facet M. W. Smith
T. Willis
L. Alfieri
W. H. M. James
M. A. Trigg
D. Yamazaki
A. J. Hardy
B. Bisselink
A. De Roo
M. G. Macklin
C. J. Thomas
author_sort M. W. Smith
title Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa
title_short Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa
title_full Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa
title_fullStr Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa
title_full_unstemmed Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa
title_sort incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in africa
publisher Nature Publishing Group
series Nature Communications
issn 2041-1723
publishDate 2020-08-01
description Prior studies mapping climatologically suitable areas for malaria transmission have used relatively simple thresholds for precipitation. Here the authors show that when models incorporate hydrological processes a more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges in Africa and future shifts in suitability are more pronounced.
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18239-5
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