Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger
<p>Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events that have serious impacts at the socio-economic and environmental levels and dramatic consequences associated with the loss of lives and the destruction of the landscape. Accordingly, seasonal forecasts are required to assist fire ma...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2019-07-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1459/2019/nhess-19-1459-2019.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events that have serious
impacts at the socio-economic and environmental levels and dramatic
consequences associated with the loss of lives and the destruction of the
landscape. Accordingly, seasonal forecasts are required to assist fire
managers, thus contributing to alter the historically based purely reactive
response. In this context, we present and discuss a statistical model to
estimate the probability that the total burned area during summer will
exceed a given threshold. The statistical model uses meteorological
information that rates the accumulation of thermal and vegetation stress.
Outlooks for the 39-year study period (1980–2018) show that, when the
statistical model is applied from 26 May to 30 June, out of
the six severe years, only one year is not anticipated as potentially severe
and, out of the six weak years, only one is not anticipated as potentially
weak. The availability of outlooks of wildfire potential with an
anticipation of up to 1 month before the starting of the fire season, such
as the one proposed here, may serve to provide clear directions for the fire
community when planning prevention and combating fire events.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |