Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang River Basin, north-west China
To improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting, an uncertain multiple linear regression (UMLR) model is presented in this study. The proposed model avoids the transfer of random error generated in the independent variable to the dependent variable, as this affects prediction accuracy. On this basis,...
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doaj-627ced4a0b304d4ab7f0a6f3a8c0e19c2020-11-25T00:42:46ZengHigher Education PressFrontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering2095-75052018-05-015217718710.15302/J-FASE-2017177Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang River Basin, north-west ChinaFan ZHANG, Mo LI, Shanshan GUO, Chenglong ZHANG, Ping GUO01. Centre for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing100083, China; 2. School of Water Conservancy Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, ChinaTo improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting, an uncertain multiple linear regression (UMLR) model is presented in this study. The proposed model avoids the transfer of random error generated in the independent variable to the dependent variable, as this affects prediction accuracy. On this basis, an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model is used for crop planting structure optimization (CPSO) with the inputs that are interval flow values under different probabilities obtained from the UMLR model. The developed system, in which the UMLR model for runoff forecasting and the ITSP model for crop planting structure optimization are integrated, is applied to a real case study. The aim of the developed system is to optimize crops planting area with limited available water resources base on the downstream runoff forecasting in order to obtain the maximum system benefit in the future. The solution obtained can demonstrate the feasibility and suitability of the developed system, and help decision makers to identify reasonable crop planting structure under multiple uncertainties.http://academic.hep.com.cn/fase/fileup/2095-7505/PDF/1510908374626-1138775978.pdfcrop planting structure optimization|inexact two-stage stochastic programming|runoff forecasting|Shiyang River Basin|uncertain multiple linear regression |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Fan ZHANG, Mo LI, Shanshan GUO, Chenglong ZHANG, Ping GUO |
spellingShingle |
Fan ZHANG, Mo LI, Shanshan GUO, Chenglong ZHANG, Ping GUO Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang River Basin, north-west China Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering crop planting structure optimization|inexact two-stage stochastic programming|runoff forecasting|Shiyang River Basin|uncertain multiple linear regression |
author_facet |
Fan ZHANG, Mo LI, Shanshan GUO, Chenglong ZHANG, Ping GUO |
author_sort |
Fan ZHANG, Mo LI, Shanshan GUO, Chenglong ZHANG, Ping GUO |
title |
Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang River Basin, north-west China |
title_short |
Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang River Basin, north-west China |
title_full |
Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang River Basin, north-west China |
title_fullStr |
Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang River Basin, north-west China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang River Basin, north-west China |
title_sort |
integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the shiyang river basin, north-west china |
publisher |
Higher Education Press |
series |
Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering |
issn |
2095-7505 |
publishDate |
2018-05-01 |
description |
To improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting, an uncertain multiple linear regression (UMLR) model is presented in this study. The proposed model avoids the transfer of random error generated in the independent variable to the dependent variable, as this affects prediction accuracy. On this basis, an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model is used for crop planting structure optimization (CPSO) with the inputs that are interval flow values under different probabilities obtained from the UMLR model. The developed system, in which the UMLR model for runoff forecasting and the ITSP model for crop planting structure optimization are integrated, is applied to a real case study. The aim of the developed system is to optimize crops planting area with limited available water resources base on the downstream runoff forecasting in order to obtain the maximum system benefit in the future. The solution obtained can demonstrate the feasibility and suitability of the developed system, and help decision makers to identify reasonable crop planting structure under multiple uncertainties. |
topic |
crop planting structure optimization|inexact two-stage stochastic programming|runoff forecasting|Shiyang River Basin|uncertain multiple linear regression |
url |
http://academic.hep.com.cn/fase/fileup/2095-7505/PDF/1510908374626-1138775978.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT fanzhangmolishanshanguochenglongzhangpingguo integrateduncertainmodelsforrunoffforecastingandcropplantingstructureoptimizationoftheshiyangriverbasinnorthwestchina |
_version_ |
1725280405308833792 |