Combined Forecasting of Streamflow Based on Cross Entropy

• Main Authors: Baohui Men, Rishang Long, Jianhua Zhang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2016-09-01
• Series: Entropy
• Subjects: combined forecasting; cross entropy; streamflow prediction
• Online Access: http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/18/9/336

In this study, we developed a model of combined streamflow forecasting based on cross entropy to solve the problems of streamflow complexity and random hydrological processes. First, we analyzed the streamflow data obtained from Wudaogou station on the Huifa River, which is the second tributary of the Songhua River, and found that the streamflow was characterized by fluctuations and periodicity, and it was closely related to rainfall. The proposed method involves selecting similar years based on the gray correlation degree. The forecasting results obtained by the time series model (autoregressive integrated moving average), improved grey forecasting model, and artificial neural network model (a radial basis function) were used as a single forecasting model, and from the viewpoint of the probability density, the method for determining weights was improved by using the cross entropy model. The numerical results showed that compared with the single forecasting model, the combined forecasting model improved the stability of the forecasting model, and the prediction accuracy was better than that of conventional combined forecasting models.