| Summary: | Lignocellulosic biomass-based ethanol is categorized as 2nd generation bioethanol in the advanced biofuel portfolio. To make sound incentive policy proposals for the Chinese government and to develop guidance for research and development and industrialization of the technology, the paper reports careful techno-economic and sensitivity analyses performed to estimate the current competitiveness of the bioethanol and identify key components which have the greatest impact on its plant-gate price (PGP). Two models were developed for the research, including the Bioethanol PGP Assessment Model (BPAM) and the Feedstock Cost Estimation Model (FCEM). Results show that the PGP of the bioethanol ranges $4.68–$6.05/gal (9,550–12,356 yuan/t). The key components that contribute most to bioethanol PGP include the conversion rate of cellulose to glucose, the ratio of five-carbon sugars converted to ethanol, feedstock cost, and enzyme loading, etc. Lignocellulosic ethanol is currently unable to compete with fossil gasoline, therefore incentive policies are necessary to promote its development. It is suggested that the consumption tax be exempted, the value added tax (VAT) be refunded upon collection, and feed-in tariff for excess electricity (byproduct) be implemented to facilitate the industrialization of the technology. A minimum direct subsidy of $1.20/gal EtOH (2,500 yuan/t EtOH) is also proposed for consideration.
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