THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

<p class="colar" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc229839755;"><span class="longtext1"><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Cássia Rita Pereira Da Veiga, Claudimar Pereira Da Veiga, Luiz Carlos Duclós
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Fundação Instituto de Administração 2010-11-01
Series:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies
Online Access:http://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/58
Description
Summary:<p class="colar" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc229839755;"><span class="longtext1"><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt;" lang="EN-US">Every organization needs to balance their production capacities with demand. The role of demand forecasting is to assist in the organization's strategic planning; this process allows administrators to anticipate the future and plot an appropriate course of action. On its own, however, a system of demand forecasting is not enough. It is the quality of information obtained by this system which enables the organization to achieve better operational planning. In this context, this paper presents case study research to: (a) define the quantitative model to forecast demand with greater accuracy; and (b) to verify the influence of accuracy in demand forecasting on financial performance</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc229839755;"><span class="longtext1"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt;" lang="EN-US">. </span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc229839755;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US">This is an <em style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ex-post facto</em> descriptive inquiry with a time series in which we made use of historical data from five groups of products over the period 2004–2008.<span class="longtext1"><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> The results suggest that if a company employs the ARIMA model for groups A, B, and E; the Holt model for group D; and the Winter model for group C, revenues will increase by approximately $1,600,000 </span></span><span class="longtext1"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt;">annually.</span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="colar" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc229839755;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></span></p><p class="colar" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc229839755;"><strong style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US">Key-words: </span></strong></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc229839755;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US">Accuracy<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">. </span><span class="longtext1"><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Demand forecasting</span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">. </span>Financial performance<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">.</span></span></span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-US"></span></p><p><p> </p></p>
ISSN:2175-5825