The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been a substantial burden throughout the Asia-Pacific countries over the past decades. For the purposes of disease prevention and climate change health impact assessment, it is important to understand the temperature–disease association for HFMD in different g...
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doaj-708409dc94044685b72f580deb7d64662020-11-24T23:16:51ZengMDPI AGInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health1660-46012015-07-011288691870410.3390/ijerph120808691ijerph120808691The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, ChinaLin Zhu0Zhongshang Yuan1Xianjun Wang2Jie Li3Lu Wang4Yunxia Liu5Fuzhong Xue6Yanxun Liu7Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, ChinaShandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250012, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, ChinaHand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been a substantial burden throughout the Asia-Pacific countries over the past decades. For the purposes of disease prevention and climate change health impact assessment, it is important to understand the temperature–disease association for HFMD in different geographical locations. This study aims to assess the impact of temperature on HFMD incidence in an inland city and a coastal city and investigate the heterogeneity of temperature–disease associations. Daily morbidity data and meteorological variables of the study areas were collected for the period from 2007 to 2012. A total of 108,377 HFMD cases were included in this study. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution was used to examine the nonlinear lagged effects of daily mean temperature on HFMD incidence. After controlling potential confounders, temperature showed significant association with HFMD incidence and the two cities demonstrated different impact modes ( I2= 96.1%; p < 0.01). The results highlight the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence and the impact pattern may be modified by geographical localities. Our findings can be a practical reference for the early warning and intervention strategies of HFMD.http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/8/8691temperature-disease associationdistributed lag non-linear modelshandfoot and mouth diseasechildrengeographical heterogeneity |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Lin Zhu Zhongshang Yuan Xianjun Wang Jie Li Lu Wang Yunxia Liu Fuzhong Xue Yanxun Liu |
spellingShingle |
Lin Zhu Zhongshang Yuan Xianjun Wang Jie Li Lu Wang Yunxia Liu Fuzhong Xue Yanxun Liu The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health temperature-disease association distributed lag non-linear models hand foot and mouth disease children geographical heterogeneity |
author_facet |
Lin Zhu Zhongshang Yuan Xianjun Wang Jie Li Lu Wang Yunxia Liu Fuzhong Xue Yanxun Liu |
author_sort |
Lin Zhu |
title |
The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China |
title_short |
The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China |
title_full |
The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China |
title_fullStr |
The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China |
title_sort |
impact of ambient temperature on childhood hfmd incidence in inland and coastal area: a two-city study in shandong province, china |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health |
issn |
1660-4601 |
publishDate |
2015-07-01 |
description |
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been a substantial burden throughout the Asia-Pacific countries over the past decades. For the purposes of disease prevention and climate change health impact assessment, it is important to understand the temperature–disease association for HFMD in different geographical locations. This study aims to assess the impact of temperature on HFMD incidence in an inland city and a coastal city and investigate the heterogeneity of temperature–disease associations. Daily morbidity data and meteorological variables of the study areas were collected for the period from 2007 to 2012. A total of 108,377 HFMD cases were included in this study. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution was used to examine the nonlinear lagged effects of daily mean temperature on HFMD incidence. After controlling potential confounders, temperature showed significant association with HFMD incidence and the two cities demonstrated different impact modes ( I2= 96.1%; p < 0.01). The results highlight the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence and the impact pattern may be modified by geographical localities. Our findings can be a practical reference for the early warning and intervention strategies of HFMD. |
topic |
temperature-disease association distributed lag non-linear models hand foot and mouth disease children geographical heterogeneity |
url |
http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/8/8691 |
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