The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey
Objectives The objective of this study was to demonstrate the effects of community-based social distancing interventions after the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Turkey on the course of the pandemic and to determine the number of prevented cases. Methods In this ecological study,...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Korean Society for Preventive Medicine
2020-11-01
|
Series: | Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.jpmph.org/upload/pdf/jpmph-20-381.pdf |
id |
doaj-709e62a82dc14befa8ff7c1ac9e9fea4 |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-709e62a82dc14befa8ff7c1ac9e9fea42020-12-10T00:00:18ZengKorean Society for Preventive MedicineJournal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health1975-83752233-45212020-11-0153639740410.3961/jpmph.20.3812121The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in TurkeyHasan Durmuş0Mehmet Enes Gökler1Selma Metintaş2 Dörtyol District Health Directorate, Hatay, Turkey Department of Public Health, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara, Turkey Department of Public Health, Eskisehir Osmangazi University/Faculty of Medicine, Eskişehir, TurkeyObjectives The objective of this study was to demonstrate the effects of community-based social distancing interventions after the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Turkey on the course of the pandemic and to determine the number of prevented cases. Methods In this ecological study, the interventions implemented in response to the first COVID-19 cases in Turkey were evaluated and the effect of the interventions was demonstrated by calculating the effective reproduction number (Rt) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coro navirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) when people complied with community-based social distancing rules. Results Google mobility scores decreased by an average of 36.33±22.41 points (range, 2.60 to 84.80) and a median of 43.80 points (interquartile range [IQR], 24.90 to 50.25). The interventions caused the calculated Rt to decrease to 1.88 (95% confidence interval, 1.87 to 1.89). The median growth rate was 19.90% (IQR, 10.90 to 53.90). A positive correlation was found between Google mobility data and Rt (r=0.783; p<0.001). The expected number of cases if the growth rate had not changed was predicted according to Google mobility categories, and it was estimated to be 1 381 922 in total. Thus, community-based interventions were estimated to have prevented 1 299 593 people from being infected. Conclusions Community-based social distancing interventions significantly decreased the Rt of COVID-19 by reducing human mobility, and thereby prevented many people from becoming infected. Another important result of this study is that it shows health policy-makers that data on human mobility in the community obtained via mobile phones can be a guide for measures to be taken.http://www.jpmph.org/upload/pdf/jpmph-20-381.pdfcovid-19sars-cov-2social distancepandemicsi̇nfectious disease |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Hasan Durmuş Mehmet Enes Gökler Selma Metintaş |
spellingShingle |
Hasan Durmuş Mehmet Enes Gökler Selma Metintaş The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health covid-19 sars-cov-2 social distance pandemics i̇nfectious disease |
author_facet |
Hasan Durmuş Mehmet Enes Gökler Selma Metintaş |
author_sort |
Hasan Durmuş |
title |
The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey |
title_short |
The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey |
title_full |
The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey |
title_fullStr |
The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey |
title_sort |
effectiveness of community-based social distancing for mitigating the spread of the covid-19 pandemic in turkey |
publisher |
Korean Society for Preventive Medicine |
series |
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health |
issn |
1975-8375 2233-4521 |
publishDate |
2020-11-01 |
description |
Objectives The objective of this study was to demonstrate the effects of community-based social distancing interventions after the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Turkey on the course of the pandemic and to determine the number of prevented cases. Methods In this ecological study, the interventions implemented in response to the first COVID-19 cases in Turkey were evaluated and the effect of the interventions was demonstrated by calculating the effective reproduction number (Rt) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coro navirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) when people complied with community-based social distancing rules. Results Google mobility scores decreased by an average of 36.33±22.41 points (range, 2.60 to 84.80) and a median of 43.80 points (interquartile range [IQR], 24.90 to 50.25). The interventions caused the calculated Rt to decrease to 1.88 (95% confidence interval, 1.87 to 1.89). The median growth rate was 19.90% (IQR, 10.90 to 53.90). A positive correlation was found between Google mobility data and Rt (r=0.783; p<0.001). The expected number of cases if the growth rate had not changed was predicted according to Google mobility categories, and it was estimated to be 1 381 922 in total. Thus, community-based interventions were estimated to have prevented 1 299 593 people from being infected. Conclusions Community-based social distancing interventions significantly decreased the Rt of COVID-19 by reducing human mobility, and thereby prevented many people from becoming infected. Another important result of this study is that it shows health policy-makers that data on human mobility in the community obtained via mobile phones can be a guide for measures to be taken. |
topic |
covid-19 sars-cov-2 social distance pandemics i̇nfectious disease |
url |
http://www.jpmph.org/upload/pdf/jpmph-20-381.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT hasandurmus theeffectivenessofcommunitybasedsocialdistancingformitigatingthespreadofthecovid19pandemicinturkey AT mehmetenesgokler theeffectivenessofcommunitybasedsocialdistancingformitigatingthespreadofthecovid19pandemicinturkey AT selmametintas theeffectivenessofcommunitybasedsocialdistancingformitigatingthespreadofthecovid19pandemicinturkey AT hasandurmus effectivenessofcommunitybasedsocialdistancingformitigatingthespreadofthecovid19pandemicinturkey AT mehmetenesgokler effectivenessofcommunitybasedsocialdistancingformitigatingthespreadofthecovid19pandemicinturkey AT selmametintas effectivenessofcommunitybasedsocialdistancingformitigatingthespreadofthecovid19pandemicinturkey |
_version_ |
1724387974469124096 |