Turning points in climate change adaptation
Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces pol...
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doaj-70acdb263c7340038b63252a830210492020-11-24T23:59:04ZengResilience AllianceEcology and Society1708-30872015-12-01204310.5751/ES-07403-2004037403Turning points in climate change adaptationSaskia Elisabeth. Werners0Erik van Slobbe1Tobias Bölscher2Albert Oost3Stefan Pfenninger4Giacomo Trombi5Marco Bindi6Marco Moriondo7Wageningen URWageningen URSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesDeltaresImperial College LondonDepartment of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of FlorenceDepartment of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of FlorenceCNR-IBIMETConcerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss4/art3/adaptation turning pointsclimate changegovernancetoolsuncertainty |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Saskia Elisabeth. Werners Erik van Slobbe Tobias Bölscher Albert Oost Stefan Pfenninger Giacomo Trombi Marco Bindi Marco Moriondo |
spellingShingle |
Saskia Elisabeth. Werners Erik van Slobbe Tobias Bölscher Albert Oost Stefan Pfenninger Giacomo Trombi Marco Bindi Marco Moriondo Turning points in climate change adaptation Ecology and Society adaptation turning points climate change governance tools uncertainty |
author_facet |
Saskia Elisabeth. Werners Erik van Slobbe Tobias Bölscher Albert Oost Stefan Pfenninger Giacomo Trombi Marco Bindi Marco Moriondo |
author_sort |
Saskia Elisabeth. Werners |
title |
Turning points in climate change adaptation |
title_short |
Turning points in climate change adaptation |
title_full |
Turning points in climate change adaptation |
title_fullStr |
Turning points in climate change adaptation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Turning points in climate change adaptation |
title_sort |
turning points in climate change adaptation |
publisher |
Resilience Alliance |
series |
Ecology and Society |
issn |
1708-3087 |
publishDate |
2015-12-01 |
description |
Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation. |
topic |
adaptation turning points climate change governance tools uncertainty |
url |
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss4/art3/ |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT saskiaelisabethwerners turningpointsinclimatechangeadaptation AT erikvanslobbe turningpointsinclimatechangeadaptation AT tobiasbolscher turningpointsinclimatechangeadaptation AT albertoost turningpointsinclimatechangeadaptation AT stefanpfenninger turningpointsinclimatechangeadaptation AT giacomotrombi turningpointsinclimatechangeadaptation AT marcobindi turningpointsinclimatechangeadaptation AT marcomoriondo turningpointsinclimatechangeadaptation |
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