Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test
<p>Effective flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, available flood damage estimates are still characterized by significant levels of uncertainty, questioning the capacity of flood damage models to depict real damages. With a joint effort of eight inter...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/2997/2020/nhess-20-2997-2020.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Effective flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, available flood damage estimates are still characterized
by significant levels of uncertainty, questioning the capacity of flood damage models to depict real damages. With a joint effort of eight
international research groups, the objective of this study was to compare, in a blind-validation test, the performances of different models for the
assessment of the direct flood damage to the residential sector at the building level (i.e. microscale). The test consisted of a common flood case
study characterized by high availability of hazard and building data but with undisclosed information on observed losses in the implementation
stage of the models. The nine selected models were chosen in order to guarantee a good mastery of the models by the research teams, variety of the
modelling approaches, and heterogeneity of the original calibration context in relation to both hazard and vulnerability features. By avoiding
possible biases in model implementation, this blind comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the
reliability of their estimations, especially regarding the potentials of local and multivariable models. From another perspective, the exercise
allowed us to increase awareness of strengths and limits of flood damage modelling, which are summarized in the paper in the form of take-home messages
from a modeller's perspective.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |