Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test
<p>Effective flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, available flood damage estimates are still characterized by significant levels of uncertainty, questioning the capacity of flood damage models to depict real damages. With a joint effort of eight inter...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/2997/2020/nhess-20-2997-2020.pdf |
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doaj-71b529bd24ce4b588e8d86f8c0c30a10 |
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Article |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
English |
| format |
Article |
| sources |
DOAJ |
| author |
D. Molinari A. R. Scorzini C. Arrighi F. Carisi F. Castelli A. Domeneghetti A. Gallazzi M. Galliani F. Grelot P. Kellermann H. Kreibich G. S. Mohor M. Mosimann S. Natho C. Richert K. Schroeter A. H. Thieken A. P. Zischg F. Ballio |
| spellingShingle |
D. Molinari A. R. Scorzini C. Arrighi F. Carisi F. Castelli A. Domeneghetti A. Gallazzi M. Galliani F. Grelot P. Kellermann H. Kreibich G. S. Mohor M. Mosimann S. Natho C. Richert K. Schroeter A. H. Thieken A. P. Zischg F. Ballio Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| author_facet |
D. Molinari A. R. Scorzini C. Arrighi F. Carisi F. Castelli A. Domeneghetti A. Gallazzi M. Galliani F. Grelot P. Kellermann H. Kreibich G. S. Mohor M. Mosimann S. Natho C. Richert K. Schroeter A. H. Thieken A. P. Zischg F. Ballio |
| author_sort |
D. Molinari |
| title |
Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test |
| title_short |
Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test |
| title_full |
Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test |
| title_fullStr |
Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test |
| title_sort |
are flood damage models converging to “reality”? lessons learnt from a blind test |
| publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
| series |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| issn |
1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| publishDate |
2020-11-01 |
| description |
<p>Effective flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, available flood damage estimates are still characterized
by significant levels of uncertainty, questioning the capacity of flood damage models to depict real damages. With a joint effort of eight
international research groups, the objective of this study was to compare, in a blind-validation test, the performances of different models for the
assessment of the direct flood damage to the residential sector at the building level (i.e. microscale). The test consisted of a common flood case
study characterized by high availability of hazard and building data but with undisclosed information on observed losses in the implementation
stage of the models. The nine selected models were chosen in order to guarantee a good mastery of the models by the research teams, variety of the
modelling approaches, and heterogeneity of the original calibration context in relation to both hazard and vulnerability features. By avoiding
possible biases in model implementation, this blind comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the
reliability of their estimations, especially regarding the potentials of local and multivariable models. From another perspective, the exercise
allowed us to increase awareness of strengths and limits of flood damage modelling, which are summarized in the paper in the form of take-home messages
from a modeller's perspective.</p> |
| url |
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/2997/2020/nhess-20-2997-2020.pdf |
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doaj-71b529bd24ce4b588e8d86f8c0c30a102020-11-25T04:08:32ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812020-11-01202997301710.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind testD. Molinari0A. R. Scorzini1C. Arrighi2F. Carisi3F. Castelli4A. Domeneghetti5A. Gallazzi6M. Galliani7F. Grelot8P. Kellermann9H. Kreibich10G. S. Mohor11M. Mosimann12S. Natho13C. Richert14K. Schroeter15A. H. Thieken16A. P. Zischg17F. Ballio18Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, ItalyDepartment of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L'Aquila, Via Gronchi 18, 67100 L'Aquila, ItalyDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, Piazza San Marco 4, 50121 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Material Engineering, University of Bologna, Viale Risorgimento 2, 40136 Bologna, ItalyDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, Piazza San Marco 4, 50121 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Material Engineering, University of Bologna, Viale Risorgimento 2, 40136 Bologna, ItalyDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, ItalyDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, ItalyG-EAU, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, IRD, INRAE, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, FranceGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Geography, Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, SwitzerlandInstitute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyG-EAU, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, IRD, INRAE, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, FranceGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Geography, Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, SwitzerlandDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan, Italy<p>Effective flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, available flood damage estimates are still characterized by significant levels of uncertainty, questioning the capacity of flood damage models to depict real damages. With a joint effort of eight international research groups, the objective of this study was to compare, in a blind-validation test, the performances of different models for the assessment of the direct flood damage to the residential sector at the building level (i.e. microscale). The test consisted of a common flood case study characterized by high availability of hazard and building data but with undisclosed information on observed losses in the implementation stage of the models. The nine selected models were chosen in order to guarantee a good mastery of the models by the research teams, variety of the modelling approaches, and heterogeneity of the original calibration context in relation to both hazard and vulnerability features. By avoiding possible biases in model implementation, this blind comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations, especially regarding the potentials of local and multivariable models. From another perspective, the exercise allowed us to increase awareness of strengths and limits of flood damage modelling, which are summarized in the paper in the form of take-home messages from a modeller's perspective.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/2997/2020/nhess-20-2997-2020.pdf |