Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles
Abstract We analyze projected changes in climate extremes (extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation) in the multimodel ensembles of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results reveal close similarity between both ensembles in the regional climate sen...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2020-09-01
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001474 |
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doaj-728733467391423a9807391b1b9a81a72020-11-25T03:47:56ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Earth's Future2328-42772020-09-0189n/an/a10.1029/2019EF001474Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel EnsemblesSonia I. Seneviratne0Mathias Hauser1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zurich Zurich SwitzerlandInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zurich Zurich SwitzerlandAbstract We analyze projected changes in climate extremes (extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation) in the multimodel ensembles of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results reveal close similarity between both ensembles in the regional climate sensitivity of the projected multimodel mean changes in climate extremes, that is, their projected changes as a function of global warming. This stands in contrast to widely reported divergences in global (transient and equilibrium) climate sensitivity in the two multimodel ensembles. Some exceptions include higher warming in the South America monsoon region, lower warming in Southern Asia and Central Africa, and higher increases in heavy precipitation in Western Africa and the Sahel region in the CMIP6 ensemble. The multimodel spread in regional climate sensitivity is found to be large in both ensembles. In particular, it contributes more to intermodel spread in projected regional climate extremes compared with the intermodel spread in global climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Our results highlight the need to consider regional climate sensitivity as a distinct feature of Earth system models and a key determinant of projected regional impacts, which is largely independent of the models' response in global climate sensitivity.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001474CMIP6CMIP5regional climate sensitivityclimate extremesclimate modelsclimate projections |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Sonia I. Seneviratne Mathias Hauser |
spellingShingle |
Sonia I. Seneviratne Mathias Hauser Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles Earth's Future CMIP6 CMIP5 regional climate sensitivity climate extremes climate models climate projections |
author_facet |
Sonia I. Seneviratne Mathias Hauser |
author_sort |
Sonia I. Seneviratne |
title |
Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles |
title_short |
Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles |
title_full |
Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles |
title_fullStr |
Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles |
title_full_unstemmed |
Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles |
title_sort |
regional climate sensitivity of climate extremes in cmip6 versus cmip5 multimodel ensembles |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
series |
Earth's Future |
issn |
2328-4277 |
publishDate |
2020-09-01 |
description |
Abstract We analyze projected changes in climate extremes (extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation) in the multimodel ensembles of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results reveal close similarity between both ensembles in the regional climate sensitivity of the projected multimodel mean changes in climate extremes, that is, their projected changes as a function of global warming. This stands in contrast to widely reported divergences in global (transient and equilibrium) climate sensitivity in the two multimodel ensembles. Some exceptions include higher warming in the South America monsoon region, lower warming in Southern Asia and Central Africa, and higher increases in heavy precipitation in Western Africa and the Sahel region in the CMIP6 ensemble. The multimodel spread in regional climate sensitivity is found to be large in both ensembles. In particular, it contributes more to intermodel spread in projected regional climate extremes compared with the intermodel spread in global climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Our results highlight the need to consider regional climate sensitivity as a distinct feature of Earth system models and a key determinant of projected regional impacts, which is largely independent of the models' response in global climate sensitivity. |
topic |
CMIP6 CMIP5 regional climate sensitivity climate extremes climate models climate projections |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001474 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT soniaiseneviratne regionalclimatesensitivityofclimateextremesincmip6versuscmip5multimodelensembles AT mathiashauser regionalclimatesensitivityofclimateextremesincmip6versuscmip5multimodelensembles |
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