Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as cases
In 2020, an unexpectedly large outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic was reported in mainland China. As we known, the epidemic was caused by imported cases in other provinces of China except for Hubei in 2020. In this paper, we developed a differential equation model with trac...
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doaj-72a0708d70f841868b32da38501125f22021-04-06T04:03:52ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272021-01-016618631Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as casesMing-Tao Li0Jin Cui1Juan Zhang2Gui-Quan Sun3School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030024, China; Corresponding author. School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030024, ChinaSchool of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030024, ChinaComplex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shan’xi, 030006, ChinaComplex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shan’xi, 030006, China; Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Shanxi, Taiyuan, 030051, China; Corresponding author. Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shan’xi, 030006, China.In 2020, an unexpectedly large outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic was reported in mainland China. As we known, the epidemic was caused by imported cases in other provinces of China except for Hubei in 2020. In this paper, we developed a differential equation model with tracing isolation strategy with close contacts of newly confirmed cases and discrete time imported cases, to perform assessment and risk analysis for COVID-19 outbreaks in Tianjin and Chongqing city. Firstly, the model behavior without imported cases was given. Then, the real-time regeneration number in Tianjin and Chongqing city revealed a trend of rapidly rising, and then falling fast. Finally, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the earlier with Wuhan lock-down, the fewer cases in these two cities. One can obtain that the tracing isolation of close contacts of newly confirmed cases could effectively control the spread of the disease. But it is not sensitive for the more contact tracing isolation days on confirmed cases, the fewer cases. Our investigation model could be potentially helpful to provide model building technology for the transmission of COVID-19.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000282Coronavirus disease 2019City lock-downThe real-time regeneration numberTracing isolation |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Ming-Tao Li Jin Cui Juan Zhang Gui-Quan Sun |
spellingShingle |
Ming-Tao Li Jin Cui Juan Zhang Gui-Quan Sun Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as cases Infectious Disease Modelling Coronavirus disease 2019 City lock-down The real-time regeneration number Tracing isolation |
author_facet |
Ming-Tao Li Jin Cui Juan Zhang Gui-Quan Sun |
author_sort |
Ming-Tao Li |
title |
Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as cases |
title_short |
Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as cases |
title_full |
Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as cases |
title_fullStr |
Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as cases |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as cases |
title_sort |
transmission analysis of covid-19 with discrete time imported cases: tianjin and chongqing as cases |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
series |
Infectious Disease Modelling |
issn |
2468-0427 |
publishDate |
2021-01-01 |
description |
In 2020, an unexpectedly large outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic was reported in mainland China. As we known, the epidemic was caused by imported cases in other provinces of China except for Hubei in 2020. In this paper, we developed a differential equation model with tracing isolation strategy with close contacts of newly confirmed cases and discrete time imported cases, to perform assessment and risk analysis for COVID-19 outbreaks in Tianjin and Chongqing city. Firstly, the model behavior without imported cases was given. Then, the real-time regeneration number in Tianjin and Chongqing city revealed a trend of rapidly rising, and then falling fast. Finally, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the earlier with Wuhan lock-down, the fewer cases in these two cities. One can obtain that the tracing isolation of close contacts of newly confirmed cases could effectively control the spread of the disease. But it is not sensitive for the more contact tracing isolation days on confirmed cases, the fewer cases. Our investigation model could be potentially helpful to provide model building technology for the transmission of COVID-19. |
topic |
Coronavirus disease 2019 City lock-down The real-time regeneration number Tracing isolation |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000282 |
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