Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown

Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown

Abstract We propose a mechanism explaining the approximately linear growth of Covid19 world total cases as well as the slow linear decrease of the daily new cases (and daily deaths) observed (in average) in USA and Italy. In our explanation, we regard a given population (the whole world or a single...

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Main Authors: Dario Bambusi, Antonio Ponno
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SpringerOpen 2020-11-01
Series:Journal of Mathematics in Industry
Subjects:
Mathematical epidemiology
Statistical models
Linear growth
COVID-19
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00095-z
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spelling doaj-72baa8029eca4e75b46d85ef5d5858992020-12-06T12:21:43ZengSpringerOpenJournal of Mathematics in Industry2190-59832020-11-011011710.1186/s13362-020-00095-zLinear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdownDario Bambusi0Antonio Ponno1Dipartimento di Matematica “Federigo Enriques”, Università degli Studi di MilanoDipartimento di Matematica “T. Levi-Civita”, Università degli Studi di PadovaAbstract We propose a mechanism explaining the approximately linear growth of Covid19 world total cases as well as the slow linear decrease of the daily new cases (and daily deaths) observed (in average) in USA and Italy. In our explanation, we regard a given population (the whole world or a single nation) as composed by many sub-clusters which, after lockdown, evolve essentially independently. The interaction is modeled by the fact that the outbreak time of the epidemic in a sub-cluster is a random variable with probability density slowly varying in time. The explanation is independent of the law according to which the epidemic evolves in the single sub cluster.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00095-zMathematical epidemiologyStatistical modelsLinear growthCOVID-19
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Dario Bambusi
Antonio Ponno
spellingShingle Dario Bambusi
Antonio Ponno
Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
Journal of Mathematics in Industry
Mathematical epidemiology
Statistical models
Linear growth
COVID-19
author_facet Dario Bambusi
Antonio Ponno
author_sort Dario Bambusi
title Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_short Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_full Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_fullStr Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_full_unstemmed Linear behavior in Covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
title_sort linear behavior in covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
publisher SpringerOpen
series Journal of Mathematics in Industry
issn 2190-5983
publishDate 2020-11-01
description Abstract We propose a mechanism explaining the approximately linear growth of Covid19 world total cases as well as the slow linear decrease of the daily new cases (and daily deaths) observed (in average) in USA and Italy. In our explanation, we regard a given population (the whole world or a single nation) as composed by many sub-clusters which, after lockdown, evolve essentially independently. The interaction is modeled by the fact that the outbreak time of the epidemic in a sub-cluster is a random variable with probability density slowly varying in time. The explanation is independent of the law according to which the epidemic evolves in the single sub cluster.
topic Mathematical epidemiology
Statistical models
Linear growth
COVID-19
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00095-z
work_keys_str_mv AT dariobambusi linearbehaviorincovid19epidemicasaneffectoflockdown
AT antonioponno linearbehaviorincovid19epidemicasaneffectoflockdown
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