Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level

Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level

In line with Kiss et. al (2006), we have constructed an analytical framework for the timely detection of risks connected with the rapid growth of consumer lending, based on an econometric model for the equilibrium level of household and consumer loans. Results from an estimation on a panel of countr...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Attila Csajbok, Pervin Dadashova, Pavlo Shykin, Balazs Vonnak
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: National Bank of Ukraine 2020-06-01
Series:Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine
Subjects:
consumer lending
equilibrium model
error-correction model
mean group estimator
Online Access:http://journal.bank.gov.ua/uploads/articles/249-1.pdf
Description
Summary:In line with Kiss et. al (2006), we have constructed an analytical framework for the timely detection of risks connected with the rapid growth of consumer lending, based on an econometric model for the equilibrium level of household and consumer loans. Results from an estimation on a panel of countries were extrapolated to the Ukrainian banking sector. The model suggests that after two waves of strong deleveraging starting in 2009 and in 2014, the consumer credit stock in 2019 is still well below its equilibrium level in Ukraine, despite the recent strong nominal dynamics.
ISSN:2414-987X

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