A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data
Atmospheric pollutants and environmental indicators are often used to reconstruct historic atmospheric pollution from peat, as it accumulates over time by decomposing plant material, thus recording a history of air pollution. In the present study, three key parameters related to the peat bogs’ surfa...
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doaj-7315e6c5345e41a1a5910865ecb313dd2020-11-25T03:47:21ZengMDPI AGSustainability2071-10502020-07-01125546554610.3390/su12145546A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic DataCostas Varotsos0Yuri Mazei1Elena Novenko2Andrey N. Tsyganov3Alexander Olchev4Tatiana Pampura5Natalia Mazei6Yulia Fatynina7Damir Saldaev8Maria Efstathiou9Climate Research Group, Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Campus Bldg. Phys. V, 15784 Athens, GreeceFaculty of Biology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskiye Gory, 1, Moscow 199991, RussiaInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny Lane 29, Moscow 119017, RussiaFaculty of Biology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskiye Gory, 1, Moscow 199991, RussiaA.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, Leninskiy Avenue, 33, Moscow 119071, RussiaInstitute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science, Russian Academy of Sciences, Institutskaya, 2b, Pushchino, Moscow Region 142290, RussiaFaculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskiye Gory, 1, Moscow 199991, RussiaDepartment of Zoology and Ecology, Penza State University, Krasnaya Str., 40, Penza 440068, RussiaFaculty of Biology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskiye Gory, 1, Moscow 199991, RussiaClimate Research Group, Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Campus Bldg. Phys. V, 15784 Athens, GreeceAtmospheric pollutants and environmental indicators are often used to reconstruct historic atmospheric pollution from peat, as it accumulates over time by decomposing plant material, thus recording a history of air pollution. In the present study, three key parameters related to the peat bogs’ surface wetness dynamics in European Russia during the Holocene were investigated using modern statistical analysis. These parameters are: (i) the water table depth (WTD) in relation to the surface, which is reconstructed based on the community structure of the subfossil testate amoeba assemblages; (ii) the peat humification estimated as absorption of alkaline extract that directly reflects moisture at which the peat was formed; (iii) the Climate Moisture Index (CMI) and the Aridity Index derived from pollen-based reconstructions of the mean annual temperature and precipitation and classifying moisture conditions as the ratio between available annual precipitation and potential land surface evapotranspiration. All these parameters provide useful information about the paleoclimate (atmospheric moisture component) dynamics. High values of WTD and peat humification appear to comply with Gutenberg–Richter law. It is noteworthy that this law also seems to reproduce the high values of the modeled climate moisture and aridity indices. The validity of this new result is checked by replacing “conventional time” with “natural time”. On this basis, a new nowcasting tool is developed to more accurately estimate the average waiting time for the extreme values of these climate parameters. This will help to understand climate variability better to address emerging development needs and priorities by implementing empirical studies of the interactions between climatic effects, mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable growth.https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/14/5546nowcastingpaleoclimateClimate Moisture IndexAridity IndexGutenberg–Richter law |
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language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Costas Varotsos Yuri Mazei Elena Novenko Andrey N. Tsyganov Alexander Olchev Tatiana Pampura Natalia Mazei Yulia Fatynina Damir Saldaev Maria Efstathiou |
spellingShingle |
Costas Varotsos Yuri Mazei Elena Novenko Andrey N. Tsyganov Alexander Olchev Tatiana Pampura Natalia Mazei Yulia Fatynina Damir Saldaev Maria Efstathiou A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data Sustainability nowcasting paleoclimate Climate Moisture Index Aridity Index Gutenberg–Richter law |
author_facet |
Costas Varotsos Yuri Mazei Elena Novenko Andrey N. Tsyganov Alexander Olchev Tatiana Pampura Natalia Mazei Yulia Fatynina Damir Saldaev Maria Efstathiou |
author_sort |
Costas Varotsos |
title |
A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data |
title_short |
A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data |
title_full |
A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data |
title_fullStr |
A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data |
title_full_unstemmed |
A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data |
title_sort |
new climate nowcasting tool based on paleoclimatic data |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Sustainability |
issn |
2071-1050 |
publishDate |
2020-07-01 |
description |
Atmospheric pollutants and environmental indicators are often used to reconstruct historic atmospheric pollution from peat, as it accumulates over time by decomposing plant material, thus recording a history of air pollution. In the present study, three key parameters related to the peat bogs’ surface wetness dynamics in European Russia during the Holocene were investigated using modern statistical analysis. These parameters are: (i) the water table depth (WTD) in relation to the surface, which is reconstructed based on the community structure of the subfossil testate amoeba assemblages; (ii) the peat humification estimated as absorption of alkaline extract that directly reflects moisture at which the peat was formed; (iii) the Climate Moisture Index (CMI) and the Aridity Index derived from pollen-based reconstructions of the mean annual temperature and precipitation and classifying moisture conditions as the ratio between available annual precipitation and potential land surface evapotranspiration. All these parameters provide useful information about the paleoclimate (atmospheric moisture component) dynamics. High values of WTD and peat humification appear to comply with Gutenberg–Richter law. It is noteworthy that this law also seems to reproduce the high values of the modeled climate moisture and aridity indices. The validity of this new result is checked by replacing “conventional time” with “natural time”. On this basis, a new nowcasting tool is developed to more accurately estimate the average waiting time for the extreme values of these climate parameters. This will help to understand climate variability better to address emerging development needs and priorities by implementing empirical studies of the interactions between climatic effects, mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable growth. |
topic |
nowcasting paleoclimate Climate Moisture Index Aridity Index Gutenberg–Richter law |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/14/5546 |
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