Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter?
Abstract This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread (China, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Russia, the US, and the UK) by implementing the time-varying VAR (TVP-VAR)...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-021-00227-3 |
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doaj-738f73a0e37646f4b0db5e863bdf6e7f2021-03-11T11:49:19ZengSpringerOpenFinancial Innovation2199-47302021-03-017112710.1186/s40854-021-00227-3Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter?Manel Youssef0Khaled Mokni1Ahdi Noomen Ajmi2College of Business Administration, Northern Border UniversityCollege of Business Administration, Northern Border UniversityDepartment of Business Administration, College of Science and Humanities in Slayel, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz UniversityAbstract This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread (China, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Russia, the US, and the UK) by implementing the time-varying VAR (TVP-VAR) model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020. Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period, but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020. Moreover, we found that the European stock markets (except Italy) transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received, primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak. Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns. Also, findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset, indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets, depending on the prevailing economic situation. These results have important implications for individual investors, portfolio managers, policymakers, investment banks, and central banks.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-021-00227-3Stock marketsDynamic connectednessCOVID-19 pandemicEconomic policy uncertaintyTVP-VAR model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Manel Youssef Khaled Mokni Ahdi Noomen Ajmi |
spellingShingle |
Manel Youssef Khaled Mokni Ahdi Noomen Ajmi Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter? Financial Innovation Stock markets Dynamic connectedness COVID-19 pandemic Economic policy uncertainty TVP-VAR model |
author_facet |
Manel Youssef Khaled Mokni Ahdi Noomen Ajmi |
author_sort |
Manel Youssef |
title |
Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter? |
title_short |
Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter? |
title_full |
Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter? |
title_fullStr |
Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter? |
title_sort |
dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the covid-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter? |
publisher |
SpringerOpen |
series |
Financial Innovation |
issn |
2199-4730 |
publishDate |
2021-03-01 |
description |
Abstract This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread (China, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Russia, the US, and the UK) by implementing the time-varying VAR (TVP-VAR) model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020. Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period, but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020. Moreover, we found that the European stock markets (except Italy) transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received, primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak. Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns. Also, findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset, indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets, depending on the prevailing economic situation. These results have important implications for individual investors, portfolio managers, policymakers, investment banks, and central banks. |
topic |
Stock markets Dynamic connectedness COVID-19 pandemic Economic policy uncertainty TVP-VAR model |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-021-00227-3 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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