On the relation between avalanche occurrence and avalanche danger level
<p>In many countries with seasonally snow-covered mountain ranges warnings are issued to alert the public about imminent avalanche danger, mostly employing an ordinal, five-level danger scale. However, as avalanche danger cannot be measured, the characterization of avalanche danger remains qua...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-03-01
|
Series: | The Cryosphere |
Online Access: | https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/737/2020/tc-14-737-2020.pdf |
Summary: | <p>In many countries with seasonally snow-covered mountain
ranges warnings are issued to alert the public about imminent avalanche
danger, mostly employing an ordinal, five-level danger scale. However, as
avalanche danger cannot be measured, the characterization of avalanche
danger remains qualitative. The probability of avalanche occurrence in
combination with the expected avalanche type and size decide on the degree
of danger in a given forecast region (<span class="inline-formula"><i>≳</i>100</span> km<span class="inline-formula"><sup>2</sup></span>). To describe
avalanche occurrence probability, the snowpack stability and its spatial
distribution need to be assessed. To quantify the relation between avalanche
occurrence and avalanche danger level, we analyzed a large data set of
visually observed avalanches (13 918 in total) from the region of Davos
(eastern Swiss Alps, <span class="inline-formula">∼300</span> km<span class="inline-formula"><sup>2</sup></span>), all with mapped
outlines, and we compared the avalanche activity to the forecast danger level
on the day of occurrence (3533 danger ratings). The number of avalanches per
day strongly increased with increasing danger level, confirming that not only
the release probability but also the frequency of locations with a weakness
in the snowpack where avalanches may initiate from increase within a
region. Avalanche size did not generally increase with increasing avalanche
danger level, suggesting that avalanche size may be of secondary importance
compared to snowpack stability and its distribution when assessing the
danger level. Moreover, the frequency of wet-snow avalanches was found to be
higher than the frequency of dry-snow avalanches for a given day and danger
level; also, wet-snow avalanches tended to be larger. This finding may
indicate that the danger scale is not used consistently with regard to
avalanche type. Even though observed avalanche occurrence and avalanche danger
level are subject to uncertainties, our findings on the characteristics of
avalanche activity suggest reworking the definitions of the European
avalanche danger scale. The description of the danger levels can be
improved, in particular by quantifying some of the many proportional
quantifiers. For instance, based on our analyses, “many avalanches”, expected
at danger level 4-High, means on the order of at least 10 avalanches per
100 km<span class="inline-formula"><sup>2</sup></span>. Whereas our data set is one of the most comprehensive,
visually observed avalanche records are known to be inherently incomplete so
that our results often refer to a lower limit and should be confirmed using
other similarly comprehensive data sets.</p> |
---|---|
ISSN: | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |