A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF EPIDEMIC
First let's construct the determined model of the dynamic of uncontrolled epidemiological process. The quotient β describes frequency of meetings of sick people with healthy and probability of infection. It is subject to action of random factors. Let's enter an item for it which will take...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation
2016-12-01
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| Series: | Naučnyj Vestnik MGTU GA |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://avia.mstuca.ru/jour/article/view/859 |
| Summary: | First let's construct the determined model of the dynamic of uncontrolled epidemiological process. The quotient β describes frequency of meetings of sick people with healthy and probability of infection. It is subject to action of random factors. Let's enter an item for it which will take into account the influence of a random destabilization. We'll have stochastic model of epidemic. Comparing the determined and stochastic models, we'll find admissible borders for destabilizing quotient σ if the maximum deviation of dynamic variables can not be higher than 5 %. |
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| ISSN: | 2079-0619 2542-0119 |