Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955
<p>We detail a new prediction-oriented procedure aimed at volcanic hazard assessment based on geophysical mass flow models constrained with heterogeneous and poorly defined data. Our method relies on an itemized application of the empirical falsification principle over an arbitrarily wide enve...
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doaj-74fd898f3c354028a27475d1f675aef52020-11-25T00:59:40ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812019-04-011979182010.5194/nhess-19-791-2019Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955A. Bevilacqua0A. Bevilacqua1A. Bevilacqua2A. K. Patra3A. K. Patra4M. I. Bursik5E. B. Pitman6J. L. Macías7R. Saucedo8D. Hyman9D. Hyman10Department of Earth Sciences, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USAComputational Data Science and Engineering programme, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USAIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, 56126, ItalyComputational Data Science and Engineering programme, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USADepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, SUNY at Buffalo, NY, 14260, USADepartment of Earth Sciences, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USADepartment of Materials Design and Innovation, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USADepartamento de Vulcanología, Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM, Mexico City, DF, 04510, MexicoInstituto de Geología, Facultad de Ingeniería, UASLP, San Luis, SLP, 78240, MexicoDepartment of Earth Sciences, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USAnow at: Collaborative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, UW, Madison, WI, 53706, USA<p>We detail a new prediction-oriented procedure aimed at volcanic hazard assessment based on geophysical mass flow models constrained with heterogeneous and poorly defined data. Our method relies on an itemized application of the empirical falsification principle over an arbitrarily wide envelope of possible input conditions. We thus provide a first step towards a objective and partially automated experimental design construction. In particular, instead of fully calibrating model inputs on past observations, we create and explore more general requirements of consistency, and then we separately use each piece of empirical data to remove those input values that are not compatible with it. Hence, partial solutions are defined to the inverse problem. This has several advantages compared to a traditionally posed inverse problem: (i) the potentially nonempty inverse images of partial solutions of multiple possible forward models characterize the solutions to the inverse problem; (ii) the partial solutions can provide hazard estimates under weaker constraints, potentially including extreme cases that are important for hazard analysis; (iii) if multiple models are applicable, specific performance scores against each piece of empirical information can be calculated. We apply our procedure to the case study of the Atenquique volcaniclastic debris flow, which occurred on the flanks of Nevado de Colima volcano (Mexico), 1955. We adopt and compare three depth-averaged models currently implemented in the TITAN2D solver, available from <span class="uri">https://vhub.org</span> (Version 4.0.0 – last access: 23 June 2016). The associated inverse problem is not well-posed if approached in a traditional way. We show that our procedure can extract valuable information for hazard assessment, allowing the exploration of the impact of synthetic flows that are similar to those that occurred in the past but different in plausible ways. The implementation of multiple models is thus a crucial aspect of our approach, as they can allow the covering of other plausible flows. We also observe that model selection is inherently linked to the inversion problem.</p>https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/791/2019/nhess-19-791-2019.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
A. Bevilacqua A. Bevilacqua A. Bevilacqua A. K. Patra A. K. Patra M. I. Bursik E. B. Pitman J. L. Macías R. Saucedo D. Hyman D. Hyman |
spellingShingle |
A. Bevilacqua A. Bevilacqua A. Bevilacqua A. K. Patra A. K. Patra M. I. Bursik E. B. Pitman J. L. Macías R. Saucedo D. Hyman D. Hyman Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
author_facet |
A. Bevilacqua A. Bevilacqua A. Bevilacqua A. K. Patra A. K. Patra M. I. Bursik E. B. Pitman J. L. Macías R. Saucedo D. Hyman D. Hyman |
author_sort |
A. Bevilacqua |
title |
Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955 |
title_short |
Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955 |
title_full |
Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955 |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955 |
title_sort |
probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from nevado de colima (mexico) using data from the atenquique debris flow, 1955 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
issn |
1561-8633 1684-9981 |
publishDate |
2019-04-01 |
description |
<p>We detail a new prediction-oriented procedure aimed at volcanic hazard
assessment based on geophysical mass flow models constrained with
heterogeneous and poorly defined data. Our method relies on an itemized
application of the empirical falsification principle over an arbitrarily wide
envelope of possible input conditions. We thus provide a first step towards a
objective and partially automated experimental design construction. In
particular, instead of fully calibrating model inputs on past observations,
we create and explore more general requirements of consistency, and then we
separately use each piece of empirical data to remove those input values that
are not compatible with it. Hence, partial solutions are defined to the inverse
problem. This has several advantages compared to a traditionally posed
inverse problem: (i) the potentially nonempty inverse images of partial
solutions of multiple possible forward models characterize the solutions to
the inverse problem; (ii) the partial solutions can provide hazard estimates
under weaker constraints, potentially including extreme cases that are
important for hazard analysis; (iii) if multiple models are applicable,
specific performance scores against each piece of empirical information can
be calculated. We apply our procedure to the case study of the Atenquique
volcaniclastic debris flow, which occurred on the flanks of Nevado de Colima
volcano (Mexico), 1955. We adopt and compare three depth-averaged models
currently implemented in the TITAN2D solver, available from <span class="uri">https://vhub.org</span>
(Version 4.0.0 – last access: 23 June 2016). The associated inverse problem
is not well-posed if approached in a traditional way. We show that our procedure
can extract valuable information for hazard assessment, allowing the exploration
of the impact of synthetic flows that are similar to those that occurred in the
past but different in plausible ways. The implementation of multiple models is
thus a crucial aspect of our approach, as they can allow the covering of other
plausible flows. We also observe that model selection is inherently linked to
the inversion problem.</p> |
url |
https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/791/2019/nhess-19-791-2019.pdf |
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